Russia is serious about Libya

For about a month and a half, Russia's commitment to Libya has increased significantly. The Russian government has been involved in the Libyan conflict for about four years, during which it has always supported Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls a large piece of Libya (in particular Cyrenaica, in the east) and which opposes the Prime Minister's government Fayez al Serraj, the only one recognized by the UN as legitimate. In recent weeks, however, around 200 Russian mercenaries have appeared in the fighting between militias linked to the two governments south of the capital Tripoli, and many operations have been carried out from Russia using snipers, precision artillery and Sukhoi fighters.

Russia's largest involvement in Libya, wrote journalist David Kirkpatrick on New York Times, is part of a broad campaign launched by the Russian regime to impose its influence in the Middle East and Africa, trying to exploit all available opportunities, in a similar way to what has been done in Syria in recent years.

According to three Libyan officials and five Western diplomats heard by the New York Times and remained anonymous for security reasons, the Russian snipers engaged in the Libyan conflict would be members of the Wagner Group, a private company linked to the Russian government that in recent years has been responsible for guiding the Russian military intervention in Syria (but there are suspicions that has also been active in other countries, including Venezuela and the Central African Republic).

The presence of the mercenaries would also be confirmed by a particular type of wound reported on the bodies of the militia who are fighting south of Tripoli: small entry holes of bullet on the head or torso, which immediately kill and which have no corresponding exit holes: according to Libyan militiamen, and according to some European officials, the lack of exit holes would be a kind of "signature" of the ammunition used by Russian mercenaries.

So far the foreign countries most involved in the Libyan conflict had been Turkey (on the side of Serraj), the United Arab Emirates and Egypt (on the side of Haftar), which had turned the war into a conflict dominated by armed drones. The UN has estimated that in the last six months the two sides have conducted more than 900 missions with drones, a very high number considering that on the ground the number of militants involved in the clashes is less than 400.

Russia seems to have decided to increase its engagement in Libya in September, at a time when the Haftar militia's offensive against Tripoli had entered a stalemate. The offensive began unexpectedly last April and was condemned by many European countries, including Italy, which were trying to start a peace process. Haftar, also thanks to the support of several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, France and Russia, had attacked the capital from the south, hoping to quickly gain control of the city and all of Libya. However, the operation had proved more complicated than expected, above all due to the refusal of many armed militias to move to the side of Haftar, despite the general discontent with the Serraj government.

In Libya an almost uninterrupted civil war has been fought since 2011, that is by the killing of the then president Muammar Gaddafi and following a foreign military intervention led by France and the United States. The country is considered very important for the security of Europe, both for the presence of ISIS cells, not yet completely defeated despite the efforts of recent years, and for the existence of very extensive networks of human traffickers who manage detention centers for migrants in Libya and organizing dangerous Mediterranean crossings.

Italy wants to change the pacts with Libya