Le Nouvelliste – 2019, a terrible year for the economy …

Haiti's GDP growth rate has never been so low in the last five years. It is 0.1% in 2019, revealed the review of the world economy published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, Tuesday, October 15, 2019.

In 2018, the GDP growth rate was 1.5, 1.2% the year before, 1.5% in 2016, 1, 2% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2014, reads in the table presented by the IMF. The Fund does not expect a strong return of growth for the next few years. Its projections project a growth of 1.2%, next year, in 2020 and 1.5% in 2024.

The review of the world economy also indicates that there is a slowdown in the growth of the global economy. "The global economy is experiencing a synchronized slowdown: growth has again been revised downward for 2019 to 3%, its slowest pace since the 2008 global financial crisis. This is a serious setback compared to 3.8% in 2017, when the global economy was experiencing a synchronized recovery. The slowdown in growth is the result of increased trade barriers, increased uncertainty about trade and the geopolitical situation, specific factors that cause macroeconomic stress in several emerging countries, and structural factors, including low productivity and an aging population in advanced countries, "according to IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath.

"In 2020, global growth should improve slightly to 3.4%, which corresponds to a 0.2% downward revision of our April projections. However, unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not widespread and is precarious. Growth in advanced economies is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019 and 2020, while growth in emerging and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.9% in 2019 to 4.6% in 2020, "continued Gita Gopinath.

Concerns …

In the country, well before the IMF's information on the 0.1% of GDP, a negative growth considering the 1.5% of demographic growth, economic operators have maintained that 2019 is a terrible year for several sectors. The political shocks of 2018 have also been repeated in 2019. Compared to the slowdown in the global economy, it will be necessary to wait and see its effects on sending remittances from the diaspora, more than 3 billion dollars this year, more than 30% of GDP. Will the manna of the diaspora fall further down our forecasts? Will political uncertainty continue as feared?

The publication of this review on GDP growth also comes at a time when the Haitian economy has been stopped for more than five weeks because of successive demonstrations that require the resignation of President Jovenel Moise.

This publication also comes at a time when Haitian companies are experiencing extremely difficult times. In addition to rickety order books, the drastic slowdown in their activities, some also make up for high financial costs following the increase of more than 20% in key rates. And the exchange rate does not help.

The monetary tightening decided by the BRH to control inflation, plus 19% in August and the depreciation of the gourd that has lost more than 30% of its value in a few months did not make anyone smile.

In the meantime, without a government, without a budget for 2019-2020, Haiti is on the bench of bad students. The country could not obtain, because of the dismissal of the Prime Minister Jean-Henry Ceant, not replaced by the Parliament, the loan of 229 million dollars out of three to% of interest with the IMF. And more than 2.2 billion dollars of projects are blocked.

The only support for Haiti, President Moïse, President Donald Trump, is political. President Donald Trump who himself is going through an area of ​​turmoil.

In Washington, Monday, Tuesday and throughout the week, assistants and diplomats are expected to answer congressional committee questions as part of the open impeachment investigation against President Donald Trump, accused of using his power to to obtain from the Ukrainian President information damaging to his rival, former President Joe Biden, leading in polls as the Democratic candidate for the next US election in November 2020. President Trump, under fire from criticism because of the abandonment of the Kurds in Syria, looks out of the corner of the eye the legal troubles of his lawyer, Rudy Giulliani.