Between impeachment and election, the United States centered on their domestic policy issues

If there were as many bookmakers as in Britain, betting would go well in the United States. Between the dismissal procedure launched by the Democrats against Donald Trump for trying to discredit a political opponent (Joe Biden), and the Democratic campaign that is already in full swing while the primary will take place in July, no one knows who will be on Capitol Hill in Washington to deliver the presidential inauguration speech in January 2021.

The November 2020 election is in everyone's minds, but the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump win against all odds, is enough to remind us that politics, even more so than economics, is a difficult science to predict. .

Already reluctant to
go to armed conflict

    with the enemy countries or to play multilateralism with its supposed partners, Donald Trump should therefore, except external aggression, focus on the domestic scene in the coming months. Both to defend itself against its opponents and to promote its 2020 program, which can be summed up for the moment only a slogan a bit short ("Keep America Great"). Democrats, for their part, do not yet have a common platform, shared between a fidelity to the legacy of Barack Obama (a line embodied by Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris) and a much more reformist trend, defended by Bernie Sanders and rising star Elizabeth Warren.

Growth as an arbitrator

One of the arbitrators will be economic growth. With 2% annual rate in the second quarter, it remains more valiant than in many other countries, and unemployment is at a historic low (3.5% of the active population). But the increase in incomes and the decline in the poverty rate have
not prevent inequalities from progressing

   . And signs of a slowdown are on the rise, with investors and companies worried about the consequences of the trade war against China.