PLAN M | ECONOMY | Why the Central is reluctant to open more the stock for the purchase of homes, and the tendency is to close it more and more

As reported by the Central Bank, reserves fell $ 128 million on Friday and closed at $ 49,598 million. In the week, gross reserves decreased 484 million dollars and US $ 4.5 billion fall in September. Recall that in the worst week since STEP (between 08/26 and 08/30), the reserves of the Central Bank drained 833 million dollars per day. After the implementation of the exchange rate, the bleeding of reserves of the BCRA decreased, but remains persistent.

The cap on purchases for hoarding for individuals of $ 10,000 per month and the prohibition on that concept for companies, had their effect on the dynamics of BCRA reserves.

Gross reserves, since the stocks, decreased from US $ 54,098 million (08/30) to US $ 49,598 million today. They lowered 4.5 billion dollars. That is, on average $ 300 million a day. While the average from PASS to the day before the stocks was 872 million. 12,211 million fell in just 14 business days. From US $ 66,039 million to US $ 54,098 million.

The degree of BCRA intervention in the exchange market to stabilize the dollar has also decreased considerably since the exchange rate. Between the STEP election and the implementation of the new stocks, the BCRA had sold $ 2,038 million to control the dollar. At a rate of 145 million per business day.

From the exchange control, the sales of foreign currency by the Central totaled US $ 529 million. That is, it sold an average of US $ 37 million a day (see chart).

In short, the outflow of dollars remains worrying. There was clearly a sharp decline since the exchange rate. But still, the accounts do not close to reach December 10 with the dollars available in the Central Bank without major shocks, if those dollars still have not only the destination of the payment of debt in dollars until the end of the year (about 6,500 million) and the sale of Central dollars in the exchange market to prevent the exchange rate from continuing to escalate.

In our projection, the current reserve sale rhyme implies about US $ 1 billion per month, that is, US $ 3,000 million until the change of government. That assuming that there is no surprise event – or the worsening of the economic dynamics itself – that forces a greater intervention of the Central Bank, especially after October 27. On the other hand, the "net reserves" – the real dollars that the Central account – is around US $ 13,000 million. (See "Do you reach the dollars to reach December 10 without more drastic measures …?")

For this reason, the Central Bank is not only extremely cautious when it comes to making concessions of the exchange rate but on the contrary the tendency is to harden it.

As an example, what happened with the real estate sector. The main Chambers of the sector had been excited about the possibility of the Central authorizing the possibility of acquiring up to 152,000 dollars for the purchase of a single home, funds that savers could withdraw from fixed terms, common investment funds or the settlement of bonds Of the debt. This was personally promised by Guido Sandleris himself to different sectoral leaders, as they tell themselves.

However, now, the BCRA only eased exchange control for those who have a mortgage loan already approved for single-store purchase and only authorized the acquisition of up to $ 100,000. It is estimated that there are only 800 credit folders in these conditions. But the rule clarifies that whoever uses this exception who uses this exception, will not be able to buy dollars for treasury in the following months, until covering the quota of 10,000 dollars per month set for natural persons. In other words, what the BCRA explained is that they are ahead of the quota of 10 months of hoarding (maximum).

At the moment, there is no possibility for those who want to buy a home and have savings in pesos in fixed-term deposits (or in other financial instruments in pesos) to be able to access a quota greater than dollars than the $ 10,000 per month . There is no solution for them if they want to buy a home. Immediately, this group must buy their monthly quota. And to get the rest of the dollars you should use the “parallel market” or buy public titles in dollars with pesos and sell them in dollars (MEP dollar), paying a price 10% higher than the official dollar for the amount outside the monthly quota .

Tags: COTIZACIN DLAR – DLARES TICKET – BUY PROPERTY – CEPO – RESERVAS BCRA – DLAR HOUSING –