One of these three clubs will win the Champions League

Approximately during the last decade, each and every one of the recent Champions League campaigns has begun with a kind of implicit agreement between everyone who witnesses the tournament. We tune in the playoff playoffs as if the fourth best team in Italy or England could cause some noise in the defining rounds. We see the group phase draw to see who ended up in the "Death Group" and complain about the group where, inevitably, Manchester City falls.

Despite this, deep within us, we are aware that Barcelona, ​​Bayern Munich or Real Madrid were going to win and in most cases, we are right.

In the last 10 editions of the tournament before the 2018-19 campaign, that team trio won 80% of the European Cups. Bayern took an "orejona", Barça won three and Madrid took four home. Perhaps the most incredible thing is that one of those three teams was present in each final and in the years in which Bayern, Barça or Madrid did not win, an atypical result or literally a volcanic eruption was required, to prevent that It will happen. The title changed hands every year, but the natural order of things was that Bayern, Barcelona or Real Madrid be crowned as the best team in the world.

However, all that changed last year.

Query here all the news and results of the Champions League.

Madrid, three-time defending champion, was dispatched to outer space thanks to a strong blow by Ajax in the round of 16 while Liverpool, a team that eventually won the trophy, eliminated Bayern in that same round and then did the same with Barça in the semifinals. Liverpool's victory marked the first occasion since 2012 that a team other than the triumvirate Bayern-Barça-Madrid raised the European Cup. And the final itself, with Tottenham as runner-up, marked the first occasion in which none of the three super power clubs on the continent was part of the final since 2008, year in which, by coincidence, there was also an English confrontation , between Manchester United and Chelsea.

Currently, Liverpool has been present in two consecutive finals, imposing its own short-term domain class in the world's leading club competition. Except that, while they have accomplished this feat at a pan-European level, they are just the second best club in their local league. Manchester City has established itself as the best team of all time in the Premier League, as well as being the most consistent in the world today. If Liverpool is the best team in Europe, then City is the best club on the planet, which raises this question: How many teams have realistic chances of becoming Champions League champions this season?

The might of the Three Great Clubs of Europe has died. The only element that prevents Liverpool and City from becoming the "Big Two" is the presence of the greatest footballer we have ever seen. This season, the City will win its first title, or Lionel Messi could get his fifth Champions League or Liverpool will take home his second "orejona" in a row.

Next, we explain why any other scenario would be a surprise.

How much quality does Manchester City have? On the one hand, it is difficult to say. The Pep Guardiola squad has added the two highest points totals in the history of English football in consecutive tournaments, although they have also been eliminated from the Champions League in the quarterfinals in a couple of consecutive seasons, losing both times to English clubs who had dominated the domestic circuit that same year. On the other hand, it is not that difficult: apart from the surprising defeat suffered at the hands of Norwich, it is a tremendous team.

According to dating from the Sports Odds History website, compiled as of 2010, the only teams that were favorites to win the Champions League in these instances of the season by greater margin were the Barcelona squads armed by Pep Guardiola, Barça de Tito Vilanova which added 100 points in the Spanish league and Barcelona of Luis Enrique, with the presence of Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar (the current odds of the City are +320, which gives an implicit probability of approximately 24%).

In other words, people who have bet money have the same faith in the City as expressed by some of the best teams of the modern football era.

If Guardiola has turned the City into the new Barcelona, ​​then Liverpool and Barcelona are the, uh, new Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. According to the same Sports Odds History data, the collective odds of the three best teams this year (City, Liverpool and Barcelona) are approximately the same as the best seasons at the top for the triumphant Barça-Bayern-Madrid. In fact, the odds of Liverpool and Barcelona taking it all this season (both located at +550, or around 15%) are the same as those of Madrid in 2013-14 and Barcelona the following year. Spoiler alert: both teams won the Champions League.

The indelible memory of the Liverpool-Barcelona showdown in the semifinals of the previous season is, of course, the fact that Liverpool won the second leg 4-0 to win the 4-3 overall. It was the second year in a row in which Barcelona lost a substantial advantage in the second leg and this seemed to suggest that there was an intangible that was very good within Liverpool (a team capable of achieving an incredible and emotional comeback in the collective) and that there was an intangible one that was extremely bad with Barcelona: why were they not able to, you know, prevent them from scoring four goals?

In reality, all of both parties suggested that the teams were in parity. Liverpool had the bad fortune of losing the first match by three goals and Barça had the bad luck of falling into the second match by four: none of those performances was as uneven as the board suggested. If Ousmane Dembelé had not missed a shot at the end of the first game, or if Alisson had not made a series of key saves at Anfield, the debate around both teams would have been very different. We talk about very small margins.

As suggested by its volatile performances at this start of the season in the Spanish League, the place that Barcelona will occupy within these three main teams will depend entirely on the presence of Messi. The Argentine has not yet played a game this season and it is not believed that he will be fit for Barça's opening match in the Champions League, to be played this week against Borussia Dortmund. In his absence, Barcelona has beaten Valencia and Real Betis, although they also tied with Osasuna and lost against Athletic Bilbao.

Although Messi has already exceeded 30 years, unlikely, the team has become increasingly dependent on its superstar Rosario. And in Europe, that's fine. In the Champions League qualifying stages, it is common to see how tactical schemes and systems are thrown out the window and the matches end up determined by individualities. What is the best way to exploit that difference between systems? Use the best individual player that has ever existed. Messi pulverized the best defense in Europe in the first leg of the draw against Liverpool and created high quality opportunities more than enough to make the return match seem little more than a protocol obligation. As long as Messi keeps playing and continues to avoid the inevitable advance of time, Barcelona will remain among the favorites.

In the case of Liverpool, its success seems to be a little less fragile. Since the beginning of 2018, this team has conceded the least amount of goals against each other in their domestic league (0.67) of any club that makes life in the Big Five European leagues. Additionally, they have converted the fifth highest number of goals per match (2.33). For its part, the City, which is third in goals scored (2.60) and third in goals allowed (0.70), is the other team whose attack and defense are among the top five.

Thanks to a clever signing policy and the presence of coach Jurgen Klopp, who actively seeks to improve his players, Liverpool has put together a team with top-notch talent in all positions, with the exception of midfield. They do not currently have an injury that substantially affects their chances of winning a seventh European Cup. The lost of

Virgil van Dijk certainly complicates things, although in spite of this, they would continue to have the electrifying trident made up of Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané, an elite execution with a stopped ball, a world class archer and perhaps the best duet of Central Europe.

If you are wondering why the defending champions (who finished in second place last year, just added 97 points in the Premier League and currently have a 5-5 record in the 2019-20 campaign) are not the big favorites, I've The reason here: They had a pretty hot season last year, adding plus-67 goal differential in a total of plus-45-3 goal expectations. Although only one unit separated the two teams at the top of the standings, the City's performance in slightly obvious statistical categories was significantly better.

1 Related

In fact, City became the first team to score 100 points in a season of the Premier League and its goal expectation differential, in fact got better in the following season. While the City has spent billions on the transfer market, none of the movements made fell among the 20 most expensive injuries of all time. On the contrary, they have managed to balance loads and now have a squad with several world class players in virtually all positions. Kevin de Bruyne may be out for most of the season and will not lose his level.

The roads that can lead to Manchester City, Barcelona and Liverpool to win everything, are clear. In the case of the City: keep playing as they have done and stop missing penalties and / or prevent the VAR from harming them. For Barça: Messi stay healthy and avoid a historical capitulation for the third consecutive year. When it comes to Liverpool: do exactly the same thing you did last year.

For the rest of the teams, the story is a bit more complicated.

With regard to Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Atlético de Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, all these teams are less likely to win the trophy compared to what was seen at this point last year. Bayern, which has the second best goal differential after City since the beginning of 2018, seems to be the club with the best position to convert that trio of great teams into a quartet, although they were defeated in their feud by Liverpool last year ; That is why the Bavarians remain a question until they manage to impose themselves on one of the elite teams.

Madrid remains totally unpredictable in the second term of

Zinedine Zidane; we will see if this time that white magic appears again in the Champions League. For Atleti, Diego "Cholo" Simeone's strategy against the main teams is to convert the games into a coin kick. Juventus has one of the oldest templates in the world and they have been little less than dominant throughout the year 2019. The PSG has the largest collection of talent in the world, but let's be honest: until they can solve their situation with Neymar and move beyond the round of 16, projecting them as tentative winners of the Champions League requires a dose of imagination that, personally, I do not possess.

It is true that all these teams could become European champions, but none of them have real chances to achieve it. On the contrary, it will probably be Manchester City, or Liverpool or it could be Barcelona. This does not mean that they will all go far in the competition. In fact, one of the three is likely to be eliminated early; This is the nature of qualifying football with 180-minute games. However, as the last 10 years have shown us, the problem when imposing on one of the favorites, is that it is pending to beat the remaining two.