Coronavirus, “for air transport losses of up to 113 billion euros, -24% of passengers in Italy”. Company headlines collapse

After the alarms launched by sectors like fashion is car, it’s up to transport quantify the damage. There IATA, international organization that supervises the air traffic, updated its forecast on the impact of Covid-19 for the sector. According to the organization’s estimates, global flight turnover for 2020 will see losses included between 63 and 113 billion dollars. Meanwhile on the business front Federmeccanica records a 3% drop in Italian engineering production for 2019 and warns: “An already very difficult situation before the coronavirus emergency can become dramatic”. Meanwhile, the European stock exchanges closed down again after two days of relief. The best was Frankfurt at -1.51% while Milan closed at -1.78 percent with the Juventus -5.8% after the new government decree which establishes the obligation to play behind closed doors until early April. Wall Street also sank and closed with the Dow Jones at -3.58% and the S&P500 at -3.39%.

The organization of Canada-based airlines speculates two scenarios. In the first, for which he estimates losses of around 63 billion dollars for the passenger business, the markets with more than 100 cases they experience a sharp drop in demand followed by an equally rapid recovery. For Italy the forecast is worse than for China: 24% fewer passengers, compared to the -23% estimated in the People’s Republic. Japan (-12%), Singapore (-10%), South Korea (-14%), France (-10%), Germany (-10%) and Iran (-16%) follow. This would result in an 11% decrease in global passengers. In the second scenario, however, the drop is applied to all countries with more than 10 cases and the losses reach around 113 billion.

The previous IATA analysis – dated February 20, 2020 – foreclosed a drop in revenues $ 29.3 billion based on a scenario that would have seen the impact of Covid-19 largely limited to the markets associated with China. Since then, the virus has spread to over 80 countries and reservations have been severely affected on routes beyond China. Financial markets reacted strongly. THE airline stocks fell nearly 25% since the beginning of the epidemic, about 21 percentage points more than the drop that occurred at a similar time during the 2003 SARS crisis. American Airlines it sold over 9% to $ 16.86, while the Delta Air Lines it lost 5.36% to $ 45.91. In Europe EasyJet closed red by 4.12% at £ 1,013.95, Ryanair marked a drop of 5.22% to 11.25 euros e Lufthansa it fell by 5.44% to 11.56 euros.

On the Italian front Federmeccanica raise your alert. According to its economic survey, the mechanical engineering production last year decreased by 3% compared to the previous year with heavy decreases for instrumental mechanics (-2.8%), for metal products (-4.4%) and in particular for the automotive sector which has lost around 10% of its production. Italy is last (after Spain) among the main countries of the EU area while La Cig grows by 64.1%. “An unexpected emergency has added to the economic weakness, which can have devastating effects,” he comments Alberto Dal Poz, president of Federmeccanica. To the immediate productive and economic consequences “there is a serious reputational damage for Italy and its companies”, recalls Dal Poz, stressing that “to avoid irreversible consequences it is essential to return immediately to normal”.

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