The consulting firm took care of making a prediction Nomisma which released the data of the Observatory on the 2020 real estate market scenario – needless to say – it is dramatic. Due to the collapse of sales and the drop in prices, the turnover of the residential sector will suffer this year a reduction between 9 and 22 billion euros compared to last year, and since the crisis will not come out quickly, the cumulative fall in turnover over the next three years could reach 122 billion euros. In addition, the Bolognese research institute expects that the disbursement of mortgages this year will mark a collapse of between -15% and -30%.
The prestigious consulting firm has a very concrete parameter of comparison: “The real estate market is deeply linked to the trend in employment. The more unemployment and layoffs grow, the less families will buy houses “. In its pre-crisis scenario, Nomisma expected a falling unemployment rate below 10% for 2020: now the forecast is between 11% and 12.4% with a tendency to worsen in the following years up to over 13% in 2022. Here, therefore, is the forecast of a sharp drop in the real estate market for residential homes which could register between 50 thousand and 120 thousand less sales this year than the 650 thousand expected pre-virus, that is a fall in the market between -8% and -18%.
A nefarious scenario echoed by a question that many ask themselves: will house prices drop? Nomisma in this is very clear: the fall in transactions will not be accompanied by an equal fall in prices, not in the short term. This means that the brick will not even have the opportunity to become a safe haven asset for savers fleeing stocks and zero-rate bonds.
Also the study of the Institute Real Estate Scenarios confirm by registering one house sales in Lombardy fell by 7% in the first two months of 2020, compared to the same period a year ago. The decrease in Milan reaches 12%. These are the first estimates of the effects of coronavirus on the real estate market and for the future there is no opening of positive glimmers. Surely, in the near future, this emergency will change the market, as Mario Breglia, President of Real Estate Scenarios warns. «Having lived for weeks in old houses or without balconies will change the family’s investment prospects. Rather than the new SUV model, better a house with an extra room. Residential demand, which is always long-lasting, will grow and will need products (new or recovered) suitable for the times, high-quality properties capable of offering a safe and healthy living and working environment ».
But the dark moment we are facing poses other challenges: how do you buy a house if you don’t see it? Again, as with it smart workingtechnology will help with the growth of business related to virtual tours, the possibility of making “visits” through the VR viewer, as already happens for some real estate companies. Again the process of digital transformation it will be relentless and increasingly central. Many observers see the decline of traditional agencies with street shops in favor of smart agencies with intermediaries working on the move.
READ ALSO
Buying a house at auction: instructions and warnings for use
READ ALSO
Bonus house, all the ways to save
READ ALSO
Thirty-year-olds and the home: better to buy or rent?
