Collapse of consumption: two scenarios – They are the first forecasts on the impact of Covid-19. There is talk of one generalized shock, explains Istat, because “in addition to the direct effects related to Suspension of activity in the sectors involved in the measures, the production system would also suffer indirect effects related to intersectoral relationships “. “The measures aimed at limiting the contagion from Covid-19 have led, in recent weeks, to the progressive closure, partial or total, of a large number of productive activities“, Istat notes, adding that if the limitations lasted only up to end of April, would determine “a reduction in final consumption equal to 4.1%” every year. In a second scenario, however, in which these restrictive measures remain in force also in May and June, “The reduction of consumption would be del 9.9%, with an overall contraction in added value equal to 4.5%“.
The first spy: the collapse of trust – Istat’s focus comes at a time when “the activities of 2.2 million businesses (49% of the total, 65% in the case of exporting companies), with an employment of 7.4 million employees (44.3%) of which 4.9 million employees (42.1%) “. The goal is to measure the possible economic effects of the crisis. The first available data is the one that measures the trust of families and businesses: already in March it appears worse compared to December 2008 and also a September 2011when the sovereign debt crisis breaks out.
The effects of lockdown on production – Among the sectors involved in the lockdown, Istat points out, “those relating to commercial services and ‘socialization’ would contribute most to the overall fall of the value added“. In a scenario of prolonged closure until the end of June, the effect generated by the contraction in consumption of these two sectors would represent approximately three quarters of the total, potentially affecting 608 thousand employed. In particular, the sectors of the culture (-16.4%) and of theentertainment (-12.7%), in addition to Retail (-6.7%). “The results presented do not take into account the possibility that some expenses related to durable goodsmay differ from time to time families and not totally canceled, “explains Istat. This means that, under certain conditions, part of the estimated contraction in consumption could be recovered once the measures have been completed di close.
Sales in February + 0.8%, + 5.7 on an annual basis – The Istat monthly note on retail trade estimates instead of a February 2020 retail sales increased monthly 0.8% in value and 0.9% in volume. In comparison with respect to a year ago, growth is del 5.7% in value and 5.8% in volume. Both sales of the are increasing food goods (+ 1.1% in value and + 1.2% in volume), both those of goods non-food (+ 0.5% in value). For Istat, the indices are affected by what happened since the end of the month, when the spread of Covid-19 has presumably caused a growth in purchases in some areas. In particular, the biggest increases concern Durable and non-durable household goods (+ 7.6%) and Tools for the home and hardware (+ 6.3%) while the lowest increase was recorded for Stationery, books, newspapers and magazines (+ 1.0%).
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