Aircraft on the ground and factories closed, it is the great escape from China of the virus

A week after the isolation of some 50 million people in the Wuhan region, the number of infections continues to mount. Yesterday if there were over six thousand of them in at least 20 countries (new cases in Finland and the United Arab Emirates) with a death toll of 169. Although the mortality statistics are currently lower than those of SARS, the number of people infected in mainland China alone is now higher than the total recorded in the nine months that shocked between 2002 and 2003ro East Asia.

But there is a difference. At that time, China had just entered the WTO, today it is the second largest economy in the world, that is, it is worth a sixth of the global GDP.

And in an increasingly interconnected economy, in just a week, companies and multinationals from all corners of the globe are realizing how much they now depend on China. The Ford and Toyota factories will remain closed for another week, General Motors and Nissan will follow the forced indications that have extended the holidays for the Chinese New Year until February 3. Apple is trying to rethink the production chain as most of the factories it supports, including Foxconn, will not reopen until at least the same date.

Starbucks has closed over two thousand stores, H&M and Uniqlo dozens. Similar measures have been taken by Ikea, KFC, Pizza Hut and McDonald’s, while Disney, which was preparing to capitalize on the arrival of the year of the mouse by focusing on the popularity of Mickey Mouse, had to close the theme parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong. . Cinemas, theaters, gyms and other places of public entertainment remain closed until further notice in order not to consider stays and holiday packages canceled. HSBC, LG Electronics and Facebook have suspended the travels of managers and employees and have disciplined themselves to quarantine those who have recently traveled to areas of infection.

The most populous nation in the world has been blocked since 24 Januaryaio, when the holidays for the New Year began. For the coronavirus 16 cities have been placed in quarantine but now the fear of contagion has spread widespread: more than 700 metropolises and 20 thousand towns throughout the territory seem deserted. And it is serious that it is not clear how long this alert state will last. For now, the most optimistic predictions predict that the epidemic will peak on February 8, but many believe that this will not happen before May. And we must consider that China now not only produces, but consumes.

Here you buy cars and smartphones more than in any other part of the world and it is always the Chinese who, when traveling abroad, now spend more than any other nationality: over 250 billion a year according to the World Tourism Organization. The global economic impact of all this is not yet clear, but according to Nomura economists, the coronavirus “could hit SARS harder than it did”, or approximately 50 billion, lowering the growth of the Chinese GDP in the first quarter 2020 by one or two percentage points on the estimated 6 percent.

The economist Zhang Ming of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, think tank connected directly to the State Council of the People’s Republic, oddly enough does not detach himself from these estimates but rather foresees a wave of stimuli and state aid in the immediate future. The fear is amplified by the economic slowdown resulting from the recent trade war with the Statthe United States and the political uncertainty that reigns over the fate of Hong Kong. And let’s not forget that according to a Nomura economists statement to Reuters, “the worst is yet to come.”