ROME – Climate, but also welfare. These are the two events that Italy is facing in a long-term scenario, 2050. And if that for the reduction of pollution is already the attention of the government and the EU, the one with the welfare state is still to be built. But time is running out if we don't start to rethink it. Because as for climate change, even Italy in which we will be living in 2050 will be totally changed. It will be the result of the transformations we are already experiencing today: in the world of work (farewell to the permanent job and goodbye to 2.3 million employees), in demography (we have fewer children so we will have 7.4 million fewer people of working age) , in health because we live longer and longer (we will have 5.7 million elderly dependents). Of course we will have more foreigners, but also more atypical (5% more) and poorer workers. The result will be and some economists and demographers have been repeating it for some time, that for every pensioner there will be only 1.1 workers. And pension spending will explode.Will it support the welfare system we have today? No, if we do not intervene immediately (starting with the national sanction service that already shows its cracks) it is the answer that comes out of the new Unipol Welfare Report, presented today in Rome. But no is not enough. Everything must be rebalanced. This is why Unipol together with The European Studio Ambrosetti, which also oversaw the 2019 Report, decided to look far ahead and create a real Think Tank. It will be called Welfare Italy and lays the foundations for the construction of a welfare model adapted to the times, to a society that goes faster, which is introducing new technologies, which has become global. Welfare must be rebalanced and rethought, private and public, and social forms of aid must meet or talk to each other more. Rethinking the welfare system is the goal, which among other things is also the intention of the president of the EU Commission. Europe is the continent of welfare. However, without forgetting the founding principles of inclusiveness, fairness and universal access is the starting point for Unipol. However, a welfare vision is needed that supports the economic and social development of the country, inclusiveness and (economic) sustainability. Here is the starting point.
The new Think Tank will therefore be a permanent platform for discussion, the sharing of ideas and the enhancement of good public and non-profit public practices. And the participants are many. Stefano Scarpetta, director of the OECD Department for Employment, Labor and Social Policies, summarized them well. "Many new jobs will be created, while others may disappear: according to the OECD, 15% of current posts are at high risk of automation in Italy over the next 15-20 years (14% average among OECD countries). another 35.5% could undergo substantial changes in the way they are carried out, these jobs will remain but with very different tasks from the current ones The transition will not be easy for many workers and without targeted intervention policies, disparities in the market In this context, offering professional training to all workers and a welfare system adapted to the needs of a changed world of work are crucial elements for avoiding further inequalities between workers and families and guaranteeing economic and social sustainability ".But there is not only work. "The growth of poverty and inequalities – it is written in the Report – makes it necessary to redefine the assistance mechanisms: over 80% of the growth of people at risk of poverty in the Eurozone between 2008 and 2017 is attributable to the contribution of Italy". And this subject also concerns welfare. Just as the Italian welfare system comes and will be touched by social, generational and family structure developments. Public spending on social protection and income support is equal to 3.8% of GDP compared to the average 4.7% in the EU and, moreover, 66.4% of young people between 18 and 34 live at home with parents, against an EU average of 50%. And if women work well, it is true that the places available in nurseries cover 24.0% of the potential catchment area with strong regional differences and below the 33.0% set by the EU. We must rethink the welfare is therefore the common feeling of all the actors and there are many who participate in the project. And to do so, they seem to indicate glistudiosi, it takes a common and even personal responsibility of individual citizens. Here are the four points from which the Think Tank starts: optimizing the information bases for welfare monitoring by sharing all experiences and data; launch a Welfare New Deal at European level by reorganizing the mechanisms, from bonuses to deductions and simplifying regulations; adapt the offer of services to new needs by encouraging adherence to supplementary funds; promote self-responsibility to individuals and companies. If we start now we can reach 2050 with a renewed welfare and not at the end of life.
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Topics:
Welfare
OECD
Protagonists:
Unipol
The European House Ambrosetti
Paolo Cimbri
Source link
https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2019/12/04/news/ripensare_il_welfare_per_l_italia_del_2050-242522254/?rss
