Ubi-Bper: this is why they are the most likely wedding. Marriage financed with sales and / or capital increase

1. Home >>
2. News >>
3. News Italy ››

11/19/2019 10:33
of Laura Naka Antonelli

FACEBOOK
TWITTER
LINKEDIN

Ubi-Bper: the market bets on us, as analysts bet, who look favorably on marriage. Or, to be more precise, they prefer them to other combinations, such as those between Ubi Banca and Banco BPM. This is also the case of Equita, which issues a note commenting on the interview that was issued to Sole 24 Ore by the number one Ubi bank, Victor Massiah.
In the note, Equita highlights what, in his opinion, are the main points that emerged in the interview given by the CEO of Ubi:

• mergers between banks are currently held back by the need to immediately pay redundancy costs in addition to the different models for calculating capital absorption. In our opinion these, in addition to these constraints, governance obstacles make a merger between UBI and BAMI (Banco BPM, for the note) less likely. Based on our calculations a merger between UBI and BPER could lead to one-off charges of € 1.4bn (of which € 820mn due to staff reduction), bringing the CET1 of the combined entity from 12.5% ​​to 11%, level that could be increased through sales and / or a capital increase of 500mn-1bn.
• The new bancassurance partnership will be presented with the 1Q business plan (first quarter). Indirectly, therefore, the CEO confirms that UBI will opt – as it was reasonable to expect – for the confirmation of the current structure that relies on the know-how of an industrial player, thus renouncing the buy-back of company shares. Based on our calculations the sale and repurchase of the shares in the insurance product factories could lead to a release of capital of about 90bps.
• UBI does not intend to apply negative collection rates.

From the Bper front, there would be no problems regarding a marriage with Ubi, as confirmed by the statements that came from Alessandro Vandelli, CEO of Bper, in an interview released last week to La Repubblica:
"At this point there are the conditions for aggregations, in the banking world: the timing is not imminent, but not too distant either, 2020 will be reasonably the year of reflections. Bper will be ready".
Vandelli has specified that at the moment "there are no open files" but "the banks potentially involved are not many: Banco Bpm, Ubi, Bper and Mps".
In short, Bper is ready for one aggregation operation. More factors lead to betting on marriage Ubi-Bper, given the blessing that in the last few hours has also arrived from the number one Unipol, Carlo Cimbri, to the aims of the merger of Bper.

B for the best Ftse Mib bank in 2019

The market itself certainly bets on the Ubi-Bper marriage: Bper's quotations, now on the rise, travel in this regard to maximum since August 2018, with a performance in 2019 equal to + 37%. The title is the best among the bankers of the year.
Of course, in general on the subject of bank mergers, in the interview with Il Sole 24 Ore and published today, the number one of Ubi Banca, ceo Victor Massiah, underlined the importance, in the case in which an aggregation operation is meditated, of first making a careful analysis on two elements. But it certainly did not rule out any merger in the sector. Which the market and analysts continue to believe.