"Nurseries free for most families from January 1" – Repubblica.it

"Improved maneuver safeguarding objectives"

The minister then opened new changes to the text. "The government has great respect and willingness to dialogue and debate, I think and I hope that parliamentary work can further improve the maneuver by safeguarding the plant and the objectives," he said.

"With the drop in the savings spread from 38.5 billion"

Gualtieri in his speech recalled how the drop in the spread to which the government's action would have contributed will bring significant savings for the public purse. Thanks to the fall in the spread – he said – there will be "a saving of 2.7 billion for the current year, which can be considered as acquired and 6.7 billion in 2020". In the four-year period 2019-2022 Italy can achieve "a credibility dividend of about 38.5 billion".Gualtieri also said he was optimistic about the country's pre-prospects for growth. The short-term forecasts for the Italian macroeconomic situation, despite the international scenario, he recalled, "have recently shown some encouraging signs" and "indicate an increase also in the fourth quarter, which could not only improve compared to the 0.1% expected in the Nadef, but it should give rise to a positive drag on growth in 2020 ". According to Gualtieri "growth of 0.6% appears to be largely achievable, even prudent".

Bank of Italy: "Estimating 2020 GDP at + 0.6% is acceptable"

A plausible termination objective also for the Bank of Italy. This is what the director general of Via Nazionale Luigi Federico Signorini highlighted. In particular, he explained, "the estimate of growth of the Italian economy of 0.6% contained in the budget law" is confirmed as acceptable and in line with our most recent assessments ". As for 2021" the growth target ( 1.0 per cent) is a little higher than the estimate recently released by the European commission (0.7%): it is not out of reach but to reach it it seems necessary that financial conditions be relaxed and that the international situation should not be further weakened " .

Asylum bonus can affect female participation in work

Going into the merits of the individual measures, Signorini emphasized that it will be important to assess the effects "of the measures" on the birth rate and on the female participation in the labor market "." The effects of the bonus for nursery schools are potentially significant – he said – but the choice of linking it to the ISEE, an indicator of the resources available at family level, could discourage the job offer of a second income earner, especially near the thresholds that determine the amount of the amount: all the more as the fees that families pay for nursery schools are already modulated according to ISEE. The experience will give useful indications to define the regime of family support measures in full swing, "he says. It follows that" it is very important to see in practice "and to evaluate" the adjustments that are deemed necessary ".

Significant safeguard clauses for 2021-2022, coverage is required

So Signorini issued a small warning concerning the safety clause on VAT, defused for this year, but still active for the next. Net of the effects of the maneuver, he recalled, they are equal to one percentage point of GDP and 1.3 points respectively. If they were abolished without compensation "the structural deterioration of the accounts would be considerable" and therefore "the need to find alternative coverage will be proposed again".

Upb: "From Maneuver expansive effect of 0.3% of GDP in the three-year period"

The analysis carried out by the Parliamentary Budget Office is also rich. "According to the simulations carried out, the budget maneuver would have an expansive effect on the real GDP for the whole of the three-year period 2020-22 of 0.3 percentage points, just below that estimated by the MEF in the Dpb (0.4 points)", Giuseppe Pisauro said.

Speaking instead of the incentive to the use of electronic cards Pisauro fears a criticality, explaining that the measures "could encourage forms of evasion with consent (those in which there is an agreement between buyer and seller), expanding rather than reducing evasion in the sales with the final consumer ".

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