Here comes again the nightmare Spread: why is it back up?

According to Sole24Ore, in an article written by Morya Longo, three main reasons: the first, in fact, linked to the current phase of political uncertainty with the Ilva "bomb" that shakes the waters – already moved – of the new executive where tensions are not lacking internal and pricked between Pd and CinqueStelle on more than one issue.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY – In the background a consideration: by now everyone knows that the Government Count Bis has laid down its arms, abandoning any rhetoric no euro, much appreciated instead to Salvini. This also explains why the weakness of the Government weighs on the spread: in the case of early elections, the road seems marked with the statement now taken for granted by Center-right in Northern League traction. A change of scenery that would reshuffle the cards on the table, rekindling in a flash fears and concerns of investors.

THE GERMANY FACTOR – The opening by the company also weighs on the spread Germany to the European guarantee on bank deposits. In itself positive news, except that on the plate Germany proposes a counterpart to this concession, namely that banks reduce national government bonds in their balance sheets.

BOOMERANG TIERING – The third reason is of a technical nature, as the economic newspaper underlines: "When Mario Draghi cut bank deposit rates in ECB (at -0.50%), introduced a mechanism that alleviated the pains of the banks for this measure. The "tiering": In fact the negative rate does not apply to all deposits in the ECB, but a system of exemptions has been introduced.

We are at vexata quaestio. It reads again: "in the case of Italian banks – calculates Antonio Cesarano di Intermonte – they would come exempted from negative deposit rates of 90 billion (in addition to the 15 billion required reserve).

"For Italian banks this is a potential window of arbitrage," he explains. They can borrow funds at negative rates on the interbank spot / term market, and then deposit them in ECB at a zero rate. In this way they would make a profit on the differential, but would drain liquidity by raising the p / t rates and consequently the BTp ”. Translated: the boomerang effect is around the corner.