Bolivia, it's chaos: Morales escapes to Mexico, risk civil war

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Bolivia woke up today in a climate of uncertainty, institutional chaos and absolute power vacuum after the dramatic day that led to the resignation of President Evo Morales, with many voices inside the country (starting with Morales himself) and international level define what happened «a coup d'etat». Of this warning is Mexico, which has announced that it has granted political asylum to the resigning president. The reaction of the American president Donald Trump, according to which Morales' exit from the scene is "a significant moment for democracy", is the opposite. The tension of the last hours has risen following the reaction of the Morales supporters who gathered in El Alto, the large popular neighborhood of La Paz, at an altitude of 4150 meters, demonstrating the motto of "Now yes, it will be civil war".

The paradox of strong growth combined with political instability.
The solution to the Bolivian crisis will not be easy at all. The country is split in two: the supporters of Morales (those of the poorest regions) and the adversaries mainly rooted in the regions richest in raw materials. The paradox of the Bolivian crisis lies in the duality between a strong economy and political fragility. The growth rate of the Bolivian GDP has been, in the last 5 years, always above 4%, the highest in Latin America. The political vulnus, with the resulting crisis, is the constitutional forcing of Morales to perpetuate his permanence as president. Evo has been leading Bolivia for almost 14 years.

The appeal for peace
Morales, who, after announcing that he had written a letter of resignation, entrenched himself in his Chapare stronghold, in the department of Cochabamba, asked his opponents, Carlos Mesa and Luis Fernando Camacho, to "take responsibility for pacifying the country and guaranteeing the political stability and peaceful coexistence of our people ". To then define them both on Twitter as "conspirators, racists and coup". The leaders of the electoral tribunal were instead arrested with the accusation of fraud in the general elections of 20 October. The main problem faced by the opposition forces (civic parties and committees) who won the political victory is that the Bolivian state is at present practically beheaded, given the resignation presented by Morales, by his deputy Alvaro Garcia Linera, by the presidents of Senate and Chamber and also by the first vice-president of the Upper House. Technically, among other things, the resignation of the head of state will be effective only when it is approved by Parliament.

The unknown parliament
Furthermore it must be remembered that the governmental Movement for Socialism (Mas) has control of two thirds of both the Senate (25 members out of 36) and the Chamber (88 out of 130), so without a participation it will never be possible to obtain a quorum to proceed with a transition based on the Constitution. In a worried appeal to solve this problem, both the Camacho-led civic committees and the Comunidad Ciudadana di Mesa party have launched an appeal to allow Mas senators and deputies to reach the Parliament building without being attacked. At international level, there is great concern about Bolivian events, with vibrant calls for moderation and respect for the Constitution addressed to the parties in conflict by the UN, Osa, European Union (EU) and China.

The positions of Russia and M5S
More decisively, however, some nations (including Russia, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela and Cuba) and various international organizations (the Puebla Group and the Alba, the Bolivarian Alliance for the peoples of our America) did not hesitate to define a "coup de State »the obligation to renounce imposed on Morales with the decisive contribution of the military. In Italy, the same was done by the M5s in a note signed by the pentastellate senators of the Foreign Commission of Palazzo Madama, in which "the coup in Bolivia organized by the right-wing opposition and the military is strongly condemned". On the opposite front, Trump states that Morales' departure "secures democracy and paves the way for the Bolivian people to hear his voice", and warns that what happened in Bolivia is "a strong signal even to the illegitimate regimes of Venezuela and Nicaragua ».