The professional duty requires us to talk about serious things as well as financial gossip or economic illusions, so a small premise on the latest report on US consumption waiting for Black Friday to give the final touch of illusion to the American economy …
Leaving aside the surface, let's explore the iceberg under the surface of the water.
While Chinese retail sales grew at the slowest pace since 2003, core consumption in America has increased by a mere 0.1%, far worse than expected. The overall rebound was driven by sales of debit cars for change and fuel. As many as seven of the 13 main categories are in decline.
The only sector that floats is that of online sales, which is slowly destroying shopping centers, without haste, of course, the Fed is also supporting the commercial real estate sector.
Furniture stores and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, clothing, sporting goods, hobbies and book retailers have been in decline for two months, and thank goodness that employment is at its highest.
On an annual basis, retail sales growth is drastically slowing.
US industrial production plunges 0.8 from September to October. The biggest decline in output in more than a decade. More pain ahead? We think so. https://t.co/TBvI4ZzxFM
– ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 17, 2019
Yes of course, now manufacturing production no longer interests anyone, it is useless to produce, the collapse of almost 0.8% in October is the worst collapse of the last ten years, think that the scientists foresaw a drop of half.
Of course they will tell you that it's all the fault of the General Motors strike, even in the past few months when it wasn't there, but the production of company equipment is down 2.5% from the beginning of the year, the Fed and Powell can tell all the bales that want on the devastating strength of the US economy, the construction sector has been falling for the third time in the last four months.
Who knows, knows that investments are essential for an economic cycle and even these are collapsing, the latest GDP figures need some retouching to improve, margins have contracted …
Meanwhile, we are at 0.4 of quarterly growth, but we celebrate with Donald every day new historical records, as in the good old days, before any self-respecting economic crisis.
About Donald, in China they don't seem very happy about how the deal is going …
Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk but wait two to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support.
– Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) November 18, 2019
Donald is too busy with impeachment, the Chinese hoped that in principle he would agree on removing the duties, but perhaps it is better to wait for the elections before making any agreement, other than the UNO phase.
In a hurry, my friend Jay popped into the White House, chatting in front of the fireplace …
Just finished at the White House with Jay Powell of the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, dollar strength and its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 18, 2019
"Just finished a very positive and cordial meeting at the White House with Jerome Powell. There has been talk of everything including interest rates, negative interest rates, low inflation, the strong dollar and its effects on manufacturing, trade with China, the EU and others, ”Trump said at the end of 'meeting.
"At the invitation of the president, Powell met" Trump and Mnuchin "at the White House to talk about the economy, growth, employment and inflation," the Fed said in a statement.
"Powell's comments were in line with those of last week's Congressional hearings. Powell did not mention the expectations for monetary policy, except for highlighting that the road will depend entirely on the economic information that will come, "the Fed adds.
"Powell said the Fed will determine monetary policy to support maximum employment and price stability and will only make decisions based on careful, objective and non-political analysis," the statement concludes.
Sure, all quiet, all serene, friends like before …
(ANSA) – WASHINGTON, NOVEMBER 19 – "In my meeting with Jay Powell I challenged the fact that our Fed's rate is too high compared to the interest rates of other competitor countries. In fact our rates should be lower than all the others (we are the USA). A too-strong dollar harms manufacturing and growth! ”Donald Trump tweeted after Fed meeting Jerome Powell on Monday morning, again ignoring the traditional independence of the US central bank.
My meeting with Jay Powell this morning, I protested that our Fed Rate is set too high In fact, our rates should be lower than all others (we are the U.S.). Too strong a Dollar hurting manufacturers & growth!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 19, 2019
Meanwhile, I make popcorn, from now until the end of the first quarter of 2020, it will really be a show, perhaps the highlight in the summer, but let's see, there is no hurry, everything is fine isn't it?
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