The United States at the end of the cycle?

(AOF) – Is the United States at the end of the cycle? This question, many have been asked recently, in the wake of a bad omen. Indeed, the stealthy passage of the slope of the US yield curve in negative territory has convinced the markets of a coming entry of the United States in recession. This is because the latest inversion periods have all been followed by a decline in GDP.

However, the consumer driver is not weakening, notes Eric Bourguignon, head of securities activities for third parties at SwissLife AM. Thus, the decomposition of GDP reveals that consumption resists despite the deterioration of the geopolitical context. "The good performance of consumption, which accounts for two thirds of GDP, mitigates the slowdown in exports and investment," says the expert.

In addition, the environment remains buoyant for consumption and the risk of a reversal of consumption is not imminent, says Eric Bourguignon. Indeed, job creation continues, wages are changing at a steady pace and household morale is good.

The expert notes that the "balance sheet" of households has improved significantly since the crisis. Their wealth has increased considerably and their debt has shrunk significantly.

In the end, if the United States experiences an economic slowdown, the scenario of a recession is to be excluded at the moment.