The grillino stays at home: thus the M5s sinks

The analysis of voting flows drawn up by the SWG gives the first photograph of the reasons why Umbria has turned the page after more than half a century of red junctions. The first data is that the center-right, already strong at the European Championships in May, has wrested more support from the spurious Pd-Cinque Stelle coalition, with the League that has substantially maintained its consensus, leaving however a quite significant growth space for Fratelli d'Italia , and despite the decline in Forza Italia, the Salvini-led coalition stood at 57.5% compared to 51.2% five months ago. Even without the party of Berlusconi, Lega and Fdi, with the list of the new governor Tesei, they would surpass 50% on their own, but Salvini nonetheless underlined that the victory was of the whole coalition, aware of the fact that the utility marginal for Forza Italia will be decisive for the conquest of the next regions (Calabria but above all Emilia Romagna, where the crucial game will be played).

On the other front, one in five PD voters took refuge in abstention, and only 66.4% confirmed their once hegemonic party vote, resulting in a fairly contained loss of support (-1.7 %) compared to the Europeans. Nothing consolatory, of course, but given the alliance built at the last moment at the table with the usual enemies – who had denounced the health scandals leading to the early dissolution of the regional assembly – could definitely have been worse.

The real electoral disaster in Umbria was suffered by the 5-star Movement, whose descending parabola seems to prefigure an irreversible decline: in fact, the votes compared to the Europeans have halved (from 14.6% to 7.4%), and are now reduced to a quarter of the peak achieved in the 2018 policies: only 39.8% confirmed the vote, while 33.1% did not vote, 6.9% voted Fdi, 6.6% the League, 4 , 3% Pd, 5.2% different center-left lists and 4.1% other parties.

The abstentions, which grew by almost six points from the Europeans to the regional elections on Sunday, penalized the Democratic Party and the Five Stars above all, confirming that a large part of the electorate on the left did not like the improvised electoral mix, improvised in extremis with the photo of Narni that will remain the sad emblem of this historic defeat. Overall, in fact, Pd and Cinque Stelle together lost almost a fifth of the votes.

If then, taking a step back, the comparison moves from the European 2019 to the 2018 Policies, photography becomes even more devastating: Di Maio leaves 75% of the votes in the field and Zingaretti 25%.

Therefore, Umbria will also have a lower number of voters than that of the province of Lecce, as Conte recalled in an attempt to save his seat, but that these elections had an unquestionable national significance is demonstrated by the fact that compared to the previous Regionals the turnout grew by nine points, reaching 65%: it is the confirmation of the desire to vote that has grown exponentially among the people in the short era of Giallorossi power.
The reasons indicated by those who had voted Pd and M5S to the Europeans not to vote for the candidate for the center-left are in fact unequivocal, and mark a solemn rejection of the national agreement that led to the Conte bis: 38% of the former voters of the Democratic Party do not politically approves the birth of the red and yellow majority, 18% are dissatisfied with the work of the government, 22% do not know or appreciate the candidate Bianconi, and just 2% say they are disappointed by the Umbrian Pd. Thus a solid majority (56%) emerges of those who have not confirmed the vote to the Democratic Party for purely national reasons. The opposition of the Grillini voters is even clearer: 54% do not want the alliance with the Democratic Party, 17% are dissatisfied with the Conte government, 8% do not know or appreciate Bianconi, 25% have not responded. Add to this the national voting intentions before the vote in Umbria, with the Lega firmly holding the first party close to 34% and coming almost alone to the agreement of Pd and Cinque Stelle together, the picture becomes even clearer: the Conte government is a clear minority not only in Umbria, but throughout the country, and the prime minister does not constitute an added value capable of shifting the electoral balance that has been consolidated for more than a year, with the center-right united firmly in advantage.

From all this it is clear that the alleged new Italian bipolarity, based on the center-right on the one hand and on the organic alliance between Pd and Five-Star on the other, is only a political fiction that broke on the first rock, that of the Umbrian elections, because it has surreptitiously put together reality and fantasy: the reality of a consolidated and cohesive coalition (the center-right), as opposed to the false and improvised left-wing coalition, a test-tube experiment born only to armor itself in the power fence without a sharing of values ​​and without a common vision of the future. But when organized minorities impose their interest on the general one, one ends up wearing down democracy and the very tightness of the system. For this reason, to prefigure that the Giallorossi alliance, the daughter of the worst transformism, can even get to elect the new president of the Republic – as Renzi repeated yesterday – is a dangerous flight forward and an open challenge to the will of the people.

A challenge that Renzi relaunched in the interview for the Vespa book, claiming to have prevented, thanks to its maneuver at the Palazzo, the sovereign victory in the event of a political election. But to flaunt this slap as a trophy to the majority of Italians reveals a clear anti-democratic culture, as well as to judge the red-yellow defeat in Umbria – from which it has cleverly taken its place – the daughter of an agreement "wrong in time and manner" is an involuntary act of self-accusation: if in fact the alliance in Umbria was wrong because it was made "in a hurry, without a shared idea" – his words – in what would never diverge from that which led to the executive Conte bis, of which he was the most ardent promoter? The exasperated tactics, of which the Rottamatore has always been a master, brings with it inevitable contradictions. That sooner or later you pay.