sales of used cars boosted by the 2020 scale?

As of January 1, 2020, the trigger threshold for the ecological malus will increase to 110 g / km of CO2 (against 117 g / km today). Therefore, it will add 50 euros to the price of your new car. Specifically, according to the statistical research firm AAA Data, the penalty "2020 version" will affect 54% of vehicles against "only" 37% this year!

For some models, the amount of tax explodes! The "maxi malus" increases of 2,000 euros from 10,500 euros to 12,500 euros. Worse, it will now concern all vehicles that reject 173 g / km and more against 191 g / km currently … So to say that "the automotive pleasure" is seen put serious sticks in the wheels, including compact sports. Hard to imagine putting 12,500 euros extra to afford a new Renault Megane RS, already billed € 38,300 mini … And even less for a Suzuki Jimny, who sees him double its price! Crippling. (Find our news: These cars that see their penalty multiplied by 7!)

A renewal of the park slowed down by the penalty?

In this context, hostile to new cars, it is easy to imagine that many customers will choose to look to the occasion. By favoring older vehicles, the renewal of the car park will take longer to set up. This would go against the will of the public authorities to develop a fleet of "clean cars" …

"By increasing the price of new vehicles, we can divert people to the opportunity market.When we are a few tens of euros of penalty … but here we have thousands of euros of penalty It's a risk, "warns Flavien Neuvy, director of the Cetelem observatory.

This observatory also recalls that France, with + 3% of new car sales in 2018, posted a fifth year of consecutive increase. Certainly the last because we put on a decline of between 3 and 4% for 2019. With this new malus "assassin", we do not see how 2020 could reverse this downward trend. Could also be added a penalty on the weight of vehicles …

The second-hand market in good shape

Conversely, the second-hand market is doing well. "With an increase of + 5.2% in registrations in September 2019, the VO market confirms its strong growth recorded since the beginning of the year.This performance is linked to a strong demand for petrol engines whose offer is more abundant in the age groups of less than 5. On the other hand, diesel engines are less in demand, with the exception of vehicles over 10 years old, which are progressing again after several months of loss, "commented Vincent. Hancart, Managing Director of AutoScout24 France.

2020: a pivotal year for the industry

For Dorothée Dayraut Jullian, director of public affairs and communications at the National Council of Automotive Professions (CNPA), "the year 2020 is a pivotal year for the industry, with the significant risk of penalties if the vehicles put on the market does not respect the new European standards for CO2 emissions, which is why the stable fiscal framework needs to be clearer this year so that professionals can project sales volumes in the medium term, and consumers are reassured about their act of purchase ".

Attention to industrial consequences

Flavien Neuvy also warns about "the industrial consequences of a penalty that acts as a new automotive sticker". The director of Cetelem observatory explains that French production, focused on large vehicles (therefore mostly taxed), could directly be impacted by these new taxes. The "best-sellers" Renault Clio and Peugeot 208, emitting little CO2, have seen their production largely relocated in recent years.

The gas plant of 2 grids of malus in 2020 …

Finally, it should be remembered that a second malus grid should be applied in the second half of 2020, taking into account the transition to the new WLTP certification cycle. At this date, the threshold triggering the tax will increase from 110 to 138 g / km with identical amounts of penalty, but offset by 28 g / km. The difference is due to differences in measurements made during the correlated NEDC cycle (current benchmark) and the more realistic WLTP standard. This will require 50 euros from 138 g / km of CO2.

"The entry into force of two penalty scales for the year 2020 is a source of unprecedented complexity and confusion for the consumer and for professionals alike. can see more clearly in the acquisition of his vehicle, "says CNPA's Dorothée Dayraut Jullian. Another point that could deport him to the occasion.

A bonus not very engaging!

Another misunderstanding, the plug-in hybrid vehicles. The latter are still excluded from the bonus scheme, "while they are a very relevant lever for combating greenhouse gas emissions, as illustrated by an ADEME report in April 2018 on electrification. cars"…

Sources: Cetelem Observatory, CNPA
Photo credit: Yann Lefebvre / EMAS