Morning – Household Confidence Down in Q3-2019

The results of the household survey, conducted by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), show that in the third quarter of 2019, household confidence continues its downward trend that began more than a year ago.

Indeed, the Household Confidence Index (CMI), whose components relate to the perception of changes in the standard of living, unemployment, the opportunity to make purchases of durable goods and the financial situation of households , was 74.8 points in Q3-2019 against 74.9 points in the previous quarter and 82.5 points a year earlier, says the HCP.

In the third quarter of 2019, 43.9 percent of households reported a decline in standard of living over the past 12 months, 32.5 percent maintained the same level, and 23.6 percent reported an improvement, according to the same source, noting that the balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living remained negative, at least 20.2 points, against minus 25.4 points in the previous quarter and minus 9.5 points in Q3-2019.

According to the results of the survey, 26.7% of households expect a decline in living standards over the next 12 months, 42.9% to maintain the same level and 26.7% to improve, while the balance of opinion for this indicator shows a negative balance for the first time since 2016, rising to -3.7 points instead of 4.7 points the previous quarter and 11.9 points the same quarter of the previous year. year 2018.

At the same time, the survey shows that in Q3-2019, 79.7% vs. 7.9% of households expect unemployment to increase over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion remained negative at -71.8 points against -76.9 points a quarter earlier and minus 65.2 points a year earlier.

Regarding the purchase opportunity of durable goods, 59.3% against 21.6% of households consider that the moment is not opportune to make these purchases in Q3-2019, stresses the HCP, noting that the balance of opinion of this indicator remained negative, falling to -37.7 points against -41.4 points the previous quarter and -30.2 points the same quarter of the year 2018.

In addition, 61.5% of households estimate that their incomes cover their expenses, 34% say they are going into debt or draw on their savings, and 4.5% say they are saving part of their income, according to the survey which states that the balance of opinion relative to the current financial situation of households remained negative at -29.5 points against -30.8 the previous quarter and -29.7 a year earlier.

As for the evolution of their financial situation during the last 12 months, 34.3% against 8.3% of households consider that it has deteriorated. This perception remains negative, with a balance of opinion of less 26.0 points in deterioration as well compared to the previous quarter where it recorded minus 24.2 points and 18.2 points respectively.

Regarding the evolution of their financial situation over the next 12 months, 26.3% against 13.5% of households, expect an improvement in their financial situation. The balance of opinion of this indicator recorded 12.8 points against 18.3 points a quarter earlier and 18.2 points a year earlier.

The survey also provides quarterly data on household perceptions of other aspects of living conditions. These include the ability of households to save and changes in food prices.