Dr. Win Udomratchawanit Executive Chairman KTB Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KTBST) revealed that this week (7-11 Oct), the key point that investors are interested in is the US-China trade negotiations on the 10th – 11 October 2019, which is important because it will affect the direction of the global economy whether the recession will occur or not. Although the chances of a positive negotiation are high But can be seen that in the past 1-2 weeks Trading volume slowed down Partly from waiting to see the result of the negotiations, which we will know is the end of this week. Causing the market to fluctuate according to the news each day
The overall market is continuing from last week. KTBST views that the negative economic numbers will make the government or central banks of the US, Europe, China and Japan consider increasing economic stimulus. If true, the global stock market index will recover. As for domestic factors The market was motivated by economic stimulus measures. Including the Baht appreciation Causing the baht to continue to be cheap as the accommodation While the sale of foreign investors in emerging markets at this time comes from the risk reduction before the trade negotiation. For issues to be followed this week Is the report of the US Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 10 and the report on Thai consumer confidence numbers. Including the preparation of the 3rd quarter earnings report of Thai financial institutions' shares
As for the investment strategy KTBST also recommends to follow up and wait and see the results of trade negotiations before deciding to increase or decrease portfolios. The result of the negotiations is expected to affect the Thai stock market next week. Therefore, KTBST recommends holding 50% cash because in addition to trade negotiation factors, There are still no other factors that will cause the market to increase much. The main support level is at 1,580- 1,600 points.
The recommended stocks are still the shares that do not go up very high and will avoid stocks that can benefit from trade wars such as power plants. Interesting stocks this week areStocks with good fundamentals such as AOT and ADVANC Including stocks that are expected to see good results in the 3rd quarter such as MTC, AMATA Including stocks that have a tendency to grow continuously, such as VGI and JMT KTBST Assess this week's index frame 1,580-1,640 points
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