Chronicle of a dismissal procedure announced

This is no longer a theoretical question. With a majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats are expected to impeach Donald Trump as part of impeachment proceedings by the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2020. But how to navigate the never-ending stream news that sweeps every day about this historical shock whose outcome is perhaps less predictable than we think? Follow the guide…

Posted on October 12, 2019 at 8:00 am

Richard Hetu
Special collaboration

Letter

"Partisan and unconstitutional": the two adjectives are found in a letter sent Tuesday by the legal adviser of the White House to the Democratic leaders of the House of Representatives. They are used to justify the refusal of the president to cooperate with the ongoing investigation with a view to a possible impeachment procedure against him. The missive may have political weight, but in law the grievances it contains are "not valid at all," says Diane Marie Amman, a law professor at the University of Georgia. "The White House's argument is that the House must conduct its inquiry as if it were a proper criminal trial. It's just not true. The Constitution says that only the House has the power to impeach (a president). It does not impose any rules. It is up to the House to define the rules. "

Crisis

After the White House's scathing letter to the Democratic leaders of the House, some lawyers and political scientists have said that the United States has entered a "constitutional crisis". Richard Pildes, a professor of law at New York University, disagrees. At least, not yet. "As long as the executive branch obeys the courts, the most fundamental aspect of the rule of law remains intact," he says. But if the executive branch refused to obey an order or a decision of the Supreme Court, then we would certainly be in a moment of profound constitutional crisis. At that time, which I hope I do not see, the question would be whether public opinion and the institutional pressures coming from other parts of the system would mobilize to defend the Court or the President in this ultimate confrontation. "

evidence

But can the House Democrats impeach the president without the documents that the White House or other government agencies are refusing? "They already have several documents," says Diane Marie Amann. She refers in particular to the note of the White House summarizing the phone call of July 25 between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. During the appeal, the US president asked his counterpart in Ukraine to investigate cases involving Democrats, including Joe Biden. "What's more, many witnesses would be willing to speak and contribute to the evidence the House needs," she adds. Other elements already on file: text messages exchanged by US diplomats and a Zelensky advisor suggesting that US aid of $ 391 million to Ukraine was contingent upon the launch of the investigations demanded by Donald Trump.

Ambassador

Marie Yovanovitch, former US ambassador to Ukraine, yesterday offered one of the most resounding testimonies since the beginning of the investigation launched by the Democrats of the House. Forced to return home by Donald Trump last May, this career diplomat said she was the victim of "false and unfounded allegations (made by people who had obviously suspicious motives"). Speaking to investigators at an in camera hearing, she pointed to Rudolph Giuliani and his allies, accusing them of circulating "fictitious" information on his account. Two of his personal attorneys, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, were arrested on Wednesday and charged the next day. They are alleged to have worked with Yuri Lutsenko, the former Attorney General of Ukraine, to head the former ambassador. She claimed that Giuliani's associates "may well have thought that their financial ambitions were being thwarted by our anti-corruption policy." Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland will testify despite the State Department's ban, his lawyers said yesterday.

accusations

Even before the end of the House Democrats' inquiry, it is possible to glimpse the main articles of an impeachment procedure that should be upheld against Donald Trump. "The content of his conversation with the President of Ukraine – and the request for political favor in exchange for military aid, if confirmed – is in itself an abuse of the presidential power that could become the basis of an article of impeachment procedure, explains Diane Marie Amann. And everything the Speaker does to prevent the House from obtaining the information it needs to determine the validity of the charge is in itself an obstacle to justice that could also be the basis of an impeachment . The sad truth is that there are other possible articles, "adds the law professor, referring in part to some of the issues raised by Robert Mueller's report.

Senate

Twenty: it is the number of Republican senators who should give up Donald Trump to be condemned by two-thirds of the upper house during a trial that would follow the procedure of impeachment of the President by the House of Representatives . For the moment, only a handful of Republican senators, including Mitt Romney, have criticized the behavior of the White House leader in the Ukrainian affair. In other words, the acquittal of the president is already a fait accompli. Is not it ? "I never say one thing is a fait accompli in American politics," says Susan MacManus, a political scientist emeritus at the University of South Florida. "It's unlikely, but new information can come up. That is why rushing impeachment proceedings against the president on limited charges may not be the wisest strategy on the part of the Democrats. "

Surveys

The survey did not go unnoticed. Fox News reported on Wednesday that 51 percent of US voters favor indictment and dismissal of Donald Trump, while 40 percent oppose it. In comparison, the American public remained largely opposed to the impeachment and dismissal of Bill Clinton, before, during and after the proceedings against him in 1998 and 1999. On the other hand, it gradually and most of them supported the idea of ​​Richard Nixon's dismissal in 1974. But current polls, including Fox News, do not mean that Donald Trump would be defeated at the polls after surviving impeachment proceedings. "There is no clear mandate for impeachment," says Susan MacManus.

Strategy

" No ! When asked the Florida political scientist whether Donald Trump's strategy against a possible impeachment procedure is comparable to that of a Bill Clinton or Richard Nixon, his answer is categorical. 20 years ago, for example, the 42^e The president had endeavored to remain above the fray, leaving it to others to attack his inquisitors. The 45^e President, on the other hand, is the one leading the charge, accusing the Democratic leaders of the House of "treason", equating their investigation with a "coup d'etat" and downplaying the faults or abuses of which he is accused. In short, he takes up the strategy that allowed him to survive the Russian affair and Robert Mueller's investigation. Will he know the same success? Time will tell.