318 for, 321 against: why the Brexit agreement between London and Brussels may still be

The Prime Minister lost his parliamentary majority at the beginning of last September. The latter was only one vote, but the balance of power has tipped with the defection of the Conservative MP Phillip Lee, who joined the Liberal Democratic Party, Europhile, followed by twenty of them, sanctioned after that. they voted several times against the advice of their government. Currently, the Conservative Party (Tories) of Boris Johnson occupies 288 of the 650 seats in Parliament. The Tories form a coalition with the small, ultra-conservative, Eurosceptic and ultraconservative DUP, but it will not support the deal. So without a majority, and having more MPs opposed to the agreement within its majority, the task looks difficult for the former mayor of London.

Indeed, the Northern Unionist Party (Democratic Unionist Party) was the first to assert its opposition to the agreement reached. With ten MPs in the House of Commons, the DUP said it could not "support what is proposed" in particular "on customs issues". He also regretted "a lack of clarity on VAT", namely the tax scheme that will be applied in Northern Ireland, British province.

Then it was the leader of Labor Labor, the main opposition party in the United Kingdom, who expressed his reluctance. Jeremy Corbyn called on British MPs to "reject" the agreement between London and the EU. "The best way to solve the Brexit is to give the people the last word in a popular vote," said the hopeful that the case will conclude with a postponement and a referendum on the agreement. Boris Johnson will also have to rally Labor MPs to his cause. They exist, 7 according to the count of the British press? In the same way, the conservatives suspended by their party because of their anti-"no deal" positions will support the government under these conditions? According to the Financial Times, 20 of them would vote for the agreement, and 3 would vote against it. What about "hard-brexiters"? They would go in the direction of Johnson.

To these positions must also be added those of the SNP, the Scottish nationalists (35 deputies) and LibDems (18 seats) who, opposed to Brexit, have assured that they would vote against the agreement. What make it very uncertain its adoption by the British Parliament, and bring Boris Johnson to multiply the calls to obtain a majority. It must be, "BoJo" having assured that he wanted at all costs a divorce at the end of the month. As it stands, 321 parliamentarians would vote against, and 318, for.

Asked about the possibility of the agreement being rejected by the British, EU negotiator Michel Barnier replied: "I did my job". "It will be necessary that one day in this assembly (…) one takes its responsibilities and that which was decided by a referendum, and supported by the various governments with which we negotiated, puts in work", has he added. According to him, Boris Johnson still had "confidence in the ability to get this vote" from Parliament.

Emmanuel Macron also wants "to believe that Johnson will have a majority to support this hard-fought agreement", even if he knows "Parliaments may not be in the agreement". Jean-Claude Juncker even said that "there is no reason to postpone further" negotiations and "that there will be no extension". A question that exceeds it, since if a deadline is requested, it is up to the 27 countries of the EU to grant it.

The negotiator Michel Barnier, he, told the British deputies to be cooperative: "It will be necessary that one day, in this assembly (…), one takes its responsibilities and that which was decided by a referendum, and supported by the different governments with which we have negotiated, is implementing itself ". If the agreement comes out unscathed from the British Parliament, it will also have to be ratified by the European Parliament.