United States: what to expect from the third debate of the Democratic primary?

For the Democratic presidential candidates of the presidential 2020 in the United States, it is already time for the third debate. They will meet this Thursday, September 12 in Houston, Texas. Several points will be particularly important to watch.

The first debate between all the favorites

To qualify for this debate, the Democratic Party had enacted strict rules. Candidates must have collected at least 2% of the support in four different surveys between late June and late August, and received financial contributions from at least 130,000 donors by the end of August.

Of the twenty remaining nominees, only ten have met the requirements: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro and Andrew Yang. A small number, which will allow for the first time to see the three favorites on the same board at the same time: Joe Biden (29.8% of voting intentions), Elizabeth Warren (18%) and Bernie Sanders (17.7%) %). Indeed, during the two previous debates, the candidates were so numerous (20 each time) that the discussions were divided into two evenings.

Climate and firearms at the heart of the debate

Last week, the American television channel CNN organized a big event on the theme of climate, during which the Democratic candidates were invited to speak. An unusual approach in the United States, where the environment is not used to be at the center of election campaigns.

Ten candidates were present at the event, and spread their differences, particularly on the nuclear or the role of public authorities in the development of renewable energy. The climate should therefore be one of the main themes of the debate on Thursday evening. Indeed, according to Hans Noel, professor at the University of Georgetown, interviewed by the Time, "Most candidates agree on almost everything. The moderators will therefore try to find the differences that exist between them. A topic in the news, with Hurricane Dorian that devastated the Bahamas last week and skirted the United States. It's a safe bet that this should be one of the main topics of the campaign, facing a Donald Trump who does not hesitate to regularly share his climateoscepticism.

Firearms control should also be addressed by candidates during the debate, after a particularly deadly August in the United States. In this month alone, 53 people died in mass killings, according to the New York Times, including 22 during the shooting in El Paso, Texas on August 3. A theme dear to the Democrats, who want to toughen the law on firearms, opposing frontally to Donald Trump. In Congress, party officials issued an appeal to the US President and Republican parliamentarians on Monday, September 9, inviting them to approve a more restrictive law, already passed in the House of Representatives.

Joe Biden at the center of attention

Largely ahead in the polls, Joe Biden will be particularly scrutinized during the debate. He is indeed expected at the turn, after a first dull debate, during which he has not pulled out of the game, and a second debate where he spent his time defending his past positions, against offensive opponents .

More centrist than his direct competitors Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, he should be attacked again by the latter, particularly by the senator from Massachusetts, who has just doubled the Vermont senator in the polls. "If (Elizabeth Warren) wants to be in first place, she really has to lose a lot of points to Joe Biden," he said. Time Seth Masket, professor of political science at the University of Denver.

Joe Biden, 76, will also have to quash doubts about his ability to hold the road for a long campaign for the White House after a series of "gaffes" in recent weeks. Just after murderous shootings of El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, in early August, he lamented the "tragic events in Houston," also in Texas, "and also in Michigan," an entirely different state, before rectifying. Shortly after, he again spoke of him by saying that "poor children are as intelligent and talented as white children". There too, he had quickly corrected himself ("that the rich children," he had resumed), but the sentence had circulated widely.

The former vice president of Barack Obama will also remove doubts about his health. He is criticized for his lack of dynamism, and is nicknamed "Joe the Sleeper" by Donald Trump, who also questioned his sanity.