Thus they are killing the emission targets to small cars, favoring SUVs

In the press conference of the Frankfurt Motor Show, there were two protagonists with controversial statements. One of them was the mayor of Frankfurt, whose entrance to the Hall was banned for ordering more trains and buses and less SUV. And the second was Carlos Tavares, CEO of the PSA group, who warned that European Union (EU) emission standards are killing the small car, favoring SUVs in the end. They are shocking statements, but no less true. And this is why.

For Carlos Tavares, at the head of PSA (a group formed by Peugeot, Citroën, DS and Opel) the EU is killing small cars and favors large cars, such as SUVs, with the norm of 95 g / km of CO2 by 2020. According to him, "the electrification of the car is throwing small cars off the market and if SUVs (with a reputation for heavy and emitting a lot) finally comply with the regulations, they may not be so bad."

On the one hand, Carlos Tavares refers to the fact that the new rules make the development of new small cars unfeasible due to the high cost of pollution control systems that must be equipped. These expensive equipment would increase the final price of the car.

And it is that a smaller car is a cheap car (they are usually sold by price, not because the public necessarily wants a small car). In the end, these systems would make the final price of the car too high and make sense of its presence in the market. Would anyone buy a Peugeot 108, for example, at a price of 208 well equipped? Probably few people. Hence, they are not profitable and that some brands are eliminating them from their ranges (Opel Karl, for example) or do not renew them (Peugeot 108, Opel Adam).

On the other hand, Carlos Tavares has not missed that the EU norm makes it a little easier for the final calculation of the average emissions to those who sell the heaviest cars. And it is that the final objective of PSA would not be 95 g / km of CO₂, but of 93 g / km, when for Daimler, the average to be reached would be 102.8 g / km, according to data from PA Consulting. it's possible? Let's see what the norm says.

The rule

At this point, anyone who follows the current news of the engine will have already internalized the famous obligation on the part of the manufacturers not to exceed the average of 95 g / km of CO₂ per car sold in 2020 throughout the territory of the EU. And whoever does not comply, will be in charge in Brussels to remind him where it hurts, in the wallet.

Some brands, such as Mazda, have been saving in anticipation of fines and other manufacturers, such as FCA, have chosen to account for Tesla's sales as their own, upon payment of an important and unknown sum to Tesla. It is perfectly legal, although very short-term.

On the one hand, in 2023 low-emission cars (less than 50 g / km) like the Tesla will have stopped counting double (in fact, the multiplier factor decreases every year after 2020) and on the other hand, it cannot be depend on another manufacturer to avoid the fine.

As for the penalty that would be applied, the European Commission has planned a fine of 95 euros for each g / km of CO₂ and per car that exceeds the emission target each one has. And not all manufacturers will have to meet the average of 95 g / km.

We are not talking here about small manufacturers that produce less than 1,000 units per year (they are exempt from complying with that standard) or those that manufacture less than 10,000 units that must comply with a reduction in emissions that they themselves have set. This is the case of Ferrari, for example, which manufactures less than 10,000 units per year.

Nor is it the case of those who manufacture between 10,000 and 300,000 units per year. These manufacturers must reduce their emissions by 45% compared to their average of 2007. This would be the case of Porsche, for example, which produces just over 250,000 units per year, but is included in the Volkswagen group.

Each manufacturer, industrial group or group of associated manufacturers in the counting (case of FCA and Tesla) has an average objective to achieve that differs from each other. And imposing a single average of 95 g / km of CO₂ on everyone would have been an unprecedented economic suicide.

A matter of weight

Recall that 95 g / km of CO₂ is equivalent to an average fuel consumption of 4.1 l / 100 km for gasoline engines and 3.9 l / 100 km for diesel engines. It is an almost unattainable figure for any car with a diesel or diesel engine without the help of some form of electrification. And the heavier the car, the more complicated it will be, obviously.

If a manufacturer like Mercedes-Benz had to meet yes or yes with the average of 95 g / km, it would have meant its end. The necessary investment and therefore the sale price of their cars would make it simply impossible.

That is why the EU has introduced the average fleet weight variable. In addition to the average emissions, the EU will take into account the average weight of what that manufacturer has sold.

Specifically, if the average weight of a manufacturer's range sold is greater than the average weight of what has been sold in Europe, that manufacturer will be awarded several additional g / km for its average for every 100 kg of weight exceeding the European average. On the contrary, if you have a range of light cars, several g / km will be subtracted for every 100 kg below the European average.

In practice, the EU will apply the following formula to calculate the objective that each manufacturer must have met:

Objective (in g / km of CO₂) = 95 + 0.0333x (M-M₀)

In this formula, M is the mass of the vehicle in kg and M₀ the average weight of cars sold in 2017 (1,379.88 kg). The M₀ value will be reviewed every three years. The new value will be known in 2021.

Thus, with this formula the weight of cars ends up having a determining role in the final calculation of the average emissions. But not in the sense that we all imagined (how much lighter, less consume and therefore reduce emissions). No, on the contrary.

It turns out that in order to meet the objectives, Manufacturers are interested in heavy cars. It is something especially advantageous for premium brands, but for those who have opted for light cars or have small cars in their ranges, it is counterproductive.

This standard has produced a negative effect that, according to data from PA Consulting, the group PSA will have to meet a target of 93 g / km of CO₂ and FCA with a target of 91.8 g / km of CO₂ (normal they have come to Tesla …). Instead, Volkswagen will have to achieve an average of 97.7 g / km, Volvo should reach an average of 106.7 g / km and Jaguar Land Rover may not exceed 130.6 g / km of CO₂.

Thus, there are curious situations, such as the Volkswagen and Porsche group. Porsche, which produces less than 300,000 cars a year, would have it easier than Audi, for example, to meet a goal of reducing emissions. However, with sales of Macan, Cayenne and Panamera that are going well, the Volkswagen group will be interested in having those heavy cars in the calculation to raise its average emission target.

It can be argued that manufacturers' sales have been taken into account. If it is a brand of SUVs, it is normal to be given a bit of margin taking into account its peculiarity. However, when it comes to lowering emissions, it is easier to reduce them from 150 g / km to 131 g / km (Jaguar Land Rover case) than to lower them from 112 ag / km to 93 g / km (PSA case) .

Low emission cars and eco-innovations

The average weight is not the only argument that manufacturers have to improve the calculation of their average depending on the objective. The low emission cars (less than 50 g / km of CO₂) sold in 2020 will double in the final calculation.

Which explains that by 2020, all manufacturers that can have an electric or plug-in hybrid in their range. There is even the curious fact that Kia delayed sales of these types of cars until 2020 to ensure a significant sales volume in 2020.

Anyway, it is something in the short term, because in 2021, these cars will count as 1.67 cars and as 1.33 in 2022, while in 2023 this solution can no longer be applied.

In addition, the EU has planned a bonus for eco-innovations (Regulation EU 443/2009, Article 12):

“The CO₂ reductions achieved through the use of innovative technologies or a combination of these (“ innovative technologies package ”) will be taken into account, upon request from a supplier or manufacturer.

These technologies will only be taken into consideration when the methodology used to evaluate them is capable of producing verifiable, repeatable and comparable results.

The total contribution of these technologies to the reduction of a manufacturer's specific emission target may be raised to 7 g of CO₂ / km. ”

We talk about hybrids or even micro hybrids, right? Well, not necessarily. Audi, for example, has managed to get the EU to accept its headlights with LED technology as a eco-innovative technology which contributes to reducing consumption and therefore CO₂ emissions. And there they can go up to 7 g / km of CO₂ of margin in the calculation of an average.

Little is said, but details are a matter of weight in many aspects of life.