While the BCRA keeps the official price bound, the gap widened, as a result of the latest measures with which it stopped the operations of the "roller"
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<p>The exchange market concluded the week with a slight rise in the prices of most of the segments that make it up, but without a doubt, what most caught the attention of investors was the <span style="background-color: #ffff99;">cash jump with liquidation, which exceeded $ 70 for a long time, amid rumors about the delay of the new IMF disbursement and the complications of some companies to turn currencies abroad.</span>
Specifically, while the Central Bank maintains the official price of the dollar, the "cash bill" reached $ 74, as a result of the latest measures with which it stopped the operations known as the curl.
So, the gap regarding the retail exchange rate of Banco Nación shot up to a level of 28%.
In addition, the obstacles for companies to pay bond maturities in the usual way forced some companies to go to the "cash account" option to get their dollars out of the country.
Another factor that would have added pressure was the payment of Letes that the BCRA made today, to the savers for 100% of their possession and to legal persons for 15% of the bill, as a result of the rebalancing. In the City they speculated that part of those dollars went to foreign accounts, or via cable or by "cash."
On the other hand, in the City of Buenos Aires, the average price of the currency that arises from the usual survey carried out by iProfessional among the main entities that operate in it is $ 58.44.
How does "cash count" work?
In the "account with liqui", a stock or bond is purchased in local currency in the city of Buenos Aires and resold abroad in green notes, where it is listed in the form of ADR, leaving that money deposited outside the country.
It is a legal mechanism, so it cannot be "persecuted" in the same way as blue. ADRs (American Depositary Receipt) are certificates that represent shares of a particular company.
Although the firm operates outside the United States (for example, Argentine companies), these certificates can be bought and sold in the New York market.
The number that follow in the City
The difference between the two quotes was smaller until, in the last week, it began to expand until reaching the current level.
"The counted with liquidation was more taker. It seems to me that there are maturities in pesos and the gap becomes taken because all the funds that have bonds in pesos abroad cannot leave otherwise than through this mechanism," maintains Santiago López Alfaro, partner and director of Delphos Investment.
With the same vision, the Cohen research department commented in its weekly report that they consider that "the exchange gap between the official dollar and the CCL may widen in the coming months, as the payment of coupons of bonds in pesos takes place by institutional investors from abroad, who, when unable to access the exchange market, would be forced to use the CCL exchange rate to repatriate the coupons collected. "
According to their calculations, 50% of the maturities for the remainder of the year (about US $ 930 million) is concentrated in the month of October, before the general elections.
The gap between the official price and the cash settlement is a number that they monitor in the City and some already calculate what an equilibrium price should be.
"Between 2012/2015, this exchange rate relationship has tended to converge towards the convertibility exchange rate," analyzes the director of Investing in the Stock Exchange and adds: "It is important that the relationship between monetary liabilities and reserves of the BCRA does not deteriorate , so that the gap does not increase and generate more inflationary pressure. "
In Consultatio, on the other hand, they tend to think "that an equilibrium exchange gap of around 10% would seem reasonable."
Anyway, they warn that there is an element that must be taken into account: "Until November, a total of US $ 2,500 million between coupons and amortization of bonds in pesos, with large participation of foreign holders that could exercise some of cash pressure with liquidation in the short term. "
It is key to monitor this gap to see the exchange rate that the market sees, since sooner rather than later the official price tends to converge towards the parallel dollar price.
"The dollar will jump again"
In this context, an Economy & Regions report warns that "the dollar will jump again sooner rather than later again, but this time it will jump faster (and stronger) than in the last two opportunities. "
What are they based on to plot this analysis? In the dynamics of the interest rate, which decreases less and less in the stability phase and rises more in the exchange and monetary imbalance phase, "reflecting on the one hand less credibility and anticipating, on the other hand, sooner instability".
"According to our vision, the real exchange rate has an upward trajectory in Argentina. According to our analysis, you have to expect a more expensive dollar in real terms. That is to say, we must anticipate a near future in which it is going to cost us Argentines more to buy the American currency", they pose.
For the analysts of the consultant, "the harmful effects of the current monetary economic policy, which could be summarized as 'bank the dollar at all costs and whatever the cost and the stocks no longer matter', are not others that enhance the probability of hyperinflation risk, making it closer in time. "
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