The devaluation liquefied the "Leliq ball", but for analysts it is still a risk

Leliq's stock is in the sights of economists. According to a report from the Center for the Study of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano, "the mountain of Leliq represents 79% of the monetary base," and said that "as with the Lebac, at some point must disarm. "

Both from Research for Trades, Eco Go and Econviews agreed that it is a problem to solve, but economists do not grant the same degree of severity.

"The Central Bank must set a sufficiently attractive interest rate to ensure the renewal of daily maturities; the bottom line is that the entity lacks genuine income to meet the interest payment generated by that stock," said Victor Beker , director of CENE. The economist added that "interest is financed by placing more Leliq; its stock grows like a snowball."

In the same vein, Gustavo Neffa, partner and director of Research for Traders, said: "The BCRA needs exogenous money, from the Treasury, or from the IMF, or from an aid package, since the international voluntary debt market is closed for Argentina". He also recalled that, as the instrument is for banks and the letters are fixed with fixed terms, so the "big question is if the terms remain unrenewed and go to the dollar, if so, the entities will invest less in Leliq and the problem of the BCRA will be to issue or find other ways to continue with the absorption of pesos. "

For Federico Furiase, the problem is the film: "If the BCRA continues to sell reserves and has to raise the rate of its remunerated liabilities, its balance will continue to deteriorate and that can put pressure on the exchange rate. On the other hand, he indicated that "Leliq risk is associated with the dynamics of fixed-term deposits", and if there is dollarization of deposits, banks will not have enough liquidity to go to Leliqs, then the BCRA will have to expand by disarming Leliq generating exchange pressure and inflationary. "

Eric Ritondale, director of Econviews, rescued that the Leliq "are about $ 18,000 million, 5% of GDP, while the Lebac, at the time, represented 10%", so that today they are "half the problem that it was the Lebac "just over a year ago. "So that the Leliq do not become a problem, what is needed is that confidence in local assets returns, not only in currency, but in bonds, in all public debt. The Leliq are, in reality, the consequence of a major problem, which is the lack of trust, "he said.

However, the jump in the exchange rate improved the situation. "As the Central Bank has assets in dollars and liabilities in pesos, the devaluation improves solvency," said Neffa.

By Sofia Bustamante