The Colombian conflict – Diario La Prensa

The announcement of a dissident group of guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) that they will break the peace agreement and resume the armed struggle has been seen by many as an internal problem of Colombia; but it is not: it is most likely to become a dispute between Colombia and Venezuela and perhaps even lead to a regional conflict. The president of Colombia, Iván Duque, has already publicly blamed Venezuela. Duque said that it is "a gang of narcoterrorists that has the shelter and the support of the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro."

In addition, the Colombian Government said that the 32-minute video in which the FARC rebels announced their decision to return to arms had been recorded in Venezuelan territory. "Venezuela is becoming the Iran of South America," Colombia's ambassador to Washington, Francisco Santos, told me. "Just as Iran uses Hezbollah to destabilize neighboring countries, Venezuela uses terrorist organizations to destabilize its neighbors."

The FARC dissident group that decided to regain arms has some 2,000 guerrillas, while another 13,000 FARC guerrillas remain attached to the 2016 peace agreement. However, the leaders of the FARC dissident group who decided to retake the weapons said they will seek to partner with the ELN, another guerrilla group that, according to the Colombian Government, is even more linked to Venezuela.

There are several reasons why Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil and even the United States could – intentionally or not – engage in a regional conflict. Maduro is against the ropes, as the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela worsens, and he may have decided to increase his support for the Colombian guerrillas to divert attention from the crisis in his country and weaken his greatest enemy in the neighborhood. Often, Maduro has publicly expressed his sympathy for the Colombian guerrillas. Last month he reiterated that the fugitive guerrilla leaders would be welcome in their country.

If tensions between Colombia and Venezuela increase, Maduro would present his country and himself as alleged victims of the "aggression" of Colombia and the United States. That could help him awaken nationalist passions in Venezuela and increase his disastrous popularity ratings. Colombia and Brazil, in turn, could be anxious to accelerate the end of the Maduro regime, either through an internal military rebellion or external pressures, because they are being flooded with Venezuelan refugees.

More than 1.3 million Venezuelan exiles already live in Colombia and another 5,000 are estimated to cross the border daily. The Trump administration, in turn, has reduced its hints that it could consider a military intervention in Venezuela. However, as the US elections of November 2020 approach, Trump desperately needs foreign policy success.

All this is very speculative and I still believe that a US intervention in Venezuela is unlikely, but a resurgence of violence by the FARC and the ELN in Colombia, with the support of Venezuela, changes the situation that existed and increases the possibility of internationalizing the internal conflict of Colombia.