The attack on the "mothership" of Saudi energy, triggered the pressure of Dead Cow

Oil prices skyrocketed in the futures market, and Brent crude recorded its largest percentage increase in a session since the Gulf War in 1991, after the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on Saturday closed near 5 % of world supply (about 50% of Aramco's production).

Brent crude futures, one of the international references, rose 19.5% to reach $ 71.95 per barrel, the largest intraday jump since January 14, 1991. The contract for the same month was 66, $ 28 per barrel, with a rise of $ 6.06, equivalent to 10.1%, compared to its previous close.

On the other hand, the futures of the American barrel West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose up to 15.5% to 63.34 dollars a barrel, the highest intraday percentage gain since June 22, 1998. The same month contract was placed at 59.77 dollars a barrel, which represents an increase of 4.92 dollars, that is, 9%.

Subsequently, the price jump was moderated after the message of Donald Trump, who authorized the use of US emergency reserves to ensure a stable supply.

The convulsion in oil prices came after a coordinated attack with ten drones hit the heart of Saudi Arabia's oil industry on Saturday, forcing the country to reduce its oil production by half.

The state oil company Saudi Aramco "is the mother ship of the Saudi energy system," he told 'El Economista' Helima Croft, raw materials strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "This is probably the worst infrastructure attack we have seen in the kingdom," Croft said.

A source close to the matter told the Reuters agency that the return to total oil capacity could take "weeks, not days."

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's oil exports will continue normally this week as the kingdom will take advantage of the stockpiles of its large storage facilities, another source in the sector said on Sunday about developments.

"We believe that the attacks would be a wake-up call for investors, who have not reflected the risks in the price of oil. Although global supply will contract in the short term, the United States has the ability to compensate for this contraction," Hue said. Frame, general manager of Frame Funds in Sydney.

"With the events of the weekend, market participants will add additional factors when calculating the fair value of crude oil, in addition to the usual factors of supply and demand."

Oil prices had remained relatively low in recent months due to abundant reserves and fears that the global economic slowdown would impact demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had even set production limits to try to maintain the price level.

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, said he approves the release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) if necessary, in an amount that will be determined due to the attack.

According to a senior US official, the attack on the plants in the heart of the Saudi Arabian oil industry was of Iranian origin, and it is possible that cruise missiles were used. Initial reports indicated that the attack came from Yemen.

Trump also said that the United States was ready for a possible response to the attack on Saudi oil facilities.

In that context, other analysts say that "crude oil will quickly reach $ 100 if the market begins to discount a US attack on Iran's infrastructure."

As explained by the Spanish media mentioned, Saudi Arabia returned to Tehran in the spotlight of the Americans, who did not hesitate to accuse Iranian radicals of being behind even though Yemen's Huthi rebel organization claimed responsibility for event. For the moment, the Huthis have stressed that Aramco's facilities could be attacked again "at any time." This is what is to come.

"In the worst case – for example, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz – will lead to prices above $ 100. However, we believe that this extreme is a bit unlikely because important Iranian allies such as the Chinese would be very affected ", analysts point out.

"We have never seen a supply disruption and a price response like this in the oil market," says Saul Kavonic, credit analyst at Credit Suisse. "Geopolitical risk is back in the oil market," says Kavonic.

"The vulnerability of Saudi infrastructure to attacks, historically seen as a stable source of crude oil for the market, is a new paradigm that the market will have to deal with," said Virendra Chauhan, an analyst at Energy Aspects.

Fears also go through the perverse effects that an increase in crude oil prices may have on the world economy. Craig Erlam, senior analyst at Oanda, warns that the world economy could fall into a recession in the face of a possible outbreak of the Persian Gulf conflict.

Dead cow

The shot of Brent oil after the attacks in Saudi Arabia doubled the pressure on the freezing of crude oil prices decreed by Mauricio Macri for the Argentine market, which adds more uncertainty to the activity in Vaca Muerta, already affected by the suspension of thousands of workers and the gas leak from a well in Loma La Lata, this weekend, which caused a fire that, today they claim, could take between two and three weeks to finish with it.

After the primary elections last August, Mauricio Macri froze through Decree 566/2019, the Creole barrel at US $ 59 to avoid a sudden transfer at devaluation prices. The same standard established an exchange rate of $ 45.19. Energy admitted that the value of the dollar was unreal and after easing it rose to $ 49.50. At the same time, the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in the suppliers were fixed.

Today, the barrel is sold at US $ 66.69 for delivery in November at the International Exchange Futures (ICE), compared to the previous close.

If the freezing of Macri in force until mid-November is taken into account, in the country the crude oil has a delay of up to 13% in dollars compared to the international price.