Reuters poll: Most analysts expect the BCR to maintain a stable interest rate | Business

Most analysts bet that the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) Maintain its interest rate in September due to a slight recovery of the local economy, although a proposal to advance general elections left the possibility of another reduction in the cost of credit, a Reuters poll said.

Four analysts consulted expect the BCR to keep its interest rate at 2.50% in September, while two experts expect the rate to decrease by 25 basis points.

"They (the BCR) believe that the economy has entered at an accelerating pace since July, so it would not be urgent to apply a new stimulus so soon," said César de los Ríos, of Thorne & Associates.

According to him National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), cement consumption increased 11.44% in July and the fishing sector grew 52.3%.

On the other hand, analysts believe that although there are signs of recovery, there are still sources of uncertainty that have impaired business confidence, so a cut in the interest rate could occur this month.

"In August, in particular, business confidence continued to penetrate pessimistic territory," he said. Francisco Grippa, chief economist for Peru of BBVA Research

Likewise, "the political risk associated with the (proposal of an) early elections" opens the door for the central bank to continue with flexibility in September, said Pedro Tuesta, of Continuum Economics.

The previous month, the BCR cut its reference interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, after keeping it stable for 16 months.

The bank will report its decision on the interest rate on Thursday at 6:00 p.m. local time (2300 GMT).

Next, a table with the forecasts of the analysts consulted:

Institution – Interest rate

Thorne Associates – 2.50%

Scotiabank – 2.50%

Itaú Unibanco – 2.50%

Intéligo – 2.50%

Continuum Economics – 2.25%

BBVA Banco Continental – 2.25%