Investors bet on payment: a bonus that expires this month rose 12%

Punctually, the Government will have to face the maturity of $ 24,800 million of the coupon of the Monetary Policy bond, the BoPOmo. This title adjusts for the Leliq rate.

The price of the TJ20 – as this instrument is called – had a 12.5% ​​jump amid growing speculation about the cancellation of its coupon. For every 100 of nominal value, today he pays an income of $ 17,40, which indicates that the market assumed that the probabilities of a payment increased, although doubts continue.

"The bonds in pesos trade as if they were going to make a take-off or as if the gap were going to be 100%," said Ezequiel Zambaglione of Balanz. "Although there is no financial element to anticipate this movement: it is mostly a political decision," he said.

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The gap between the operation of public securities traded on the domestic market and on Wall Street widened. The search for arbitrations that generate dollars increased prices and local volume.

By
MELINA & nbspMANFREDI

There is a key point in this instrument: 90% of its holders are foreigners. In fact, last June the PIMCO fund had reported that it owned 40% of the issue and now extended this holding to 49.93%. The risk is that the payment in pesos of this instrument will press cash with liqui, which closed at $ 66.90, since these funds will seek to convert them into dollars.

"Precisely the possible pressure on cash with liqui is one of the reasons to think that the coupon may not be paid. In addition, paying foreign funds after having reperfiled local holders (Lecap and Letes) could generate some political noise," he said. Martín Przybylski, from Consultatio, who also considered: "There are also reasons to believe that the TJ20 coupon is going to be paid since not doing so could contribute to breaking this financial calm that was achieved in recent days."

For Nery Persichini, of GMA Capital, there are no reasons for a new breach: "The remainder of the year was quite clear after compulsory reperfilation of Letes and Lecap. Interest and capital until December 10 totaling about US $ 2300 million, a a figure payable with the help of the BCRA even if the US $ 5400 million does not reach the IMF, "he said and added:" Lacunza had emphasized capital maturities. It would be counterproductive to issue interest, especially when the Government promotes voluntary re-inflation and more market friendly possible. "