From today, who buys dollars must wait five days to acquire bonds. The CNV analyzes hardening the obstacles to put a brake on the operation
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">After the fury that generated among small savers the financial operation known as rulo, the Central Bank went out to restrict this business and the National Securities Commission (CNV) analyzes to follow the same steps. </span>
The possibility of earning 6% in a matter of minutes buying a dollar bond and selling the same bond in pesos generated a flood of new accounts, which collapsed the market's trading system.
With this operation between eyebrow and eyebrow, the board of the Central Bank advanced its usual meeting on Thursday and Wednesday afternoon was prepared to put a brake on the curl. Thus, after 20.30 he issued Communication A6780 with which he seeks to discourage the purchase of dollars to end up doing the loop.
Strictly speaking, according to point 10 of the regulations established as an additional requirement for the purchase of dollars by resident human persons the presentation of an affidavit by the client ensuring that "the funds purchased will not be destined for the purchase in the secondary market of securities within 5 business days as of the settlement date of said exchange transaction ".
In other words, whoever buys dollars will not be able to allocate them for the purchase of a bond, at least within 5 business days. "If the dollar is still ironed, a roller can be made per week," said a City operator.
Along the same lines, economist Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, from Estudio Eco Go, said from his Twitter account that it would not seem to end. "You reduce the flow of operations: it is difficult for you to reach the one with less than $ 10,000. If you have $ 2,500 it will take 20 days, but it seems to me that the operation was not finished," he added.
For Norberto Sosa, director of Investing in the Stock Exchange, "although it is an unfriendly measure, it helps to reduce the frenzy generated by the so-called curl, overflowing the operational capacity of the ALyC".
How it impacts the market
The financial analyst Christian Buteler, also stressed that with the new regulations of the BCRA can continue making the loop, but from now on every five days.
On the other hand, Buteler analyzed the possible effects that this regulation could have on the market:
–The obstacles will surely decrease the amount of operations.
-The BCRA will lose somewhat less reserves.
-AY24 (Bonar 24) yesterday fell 9%. The expectation is set if it continues to fall.
-The MEP dollar will be closer to the "account with liqui".
In dialogue with Professional, the financial analyst explained that Bonar 24 could fall, since "one of the main reasons why he remained sued was to do this type of operations." Thus, he added, when this demand is taken, the bond is likely to suffer a contraction in its price.
In addition, he said that it is very likely that the value of the MEP dollar (which is the one that arises from buying a bond in pesos and selling the dollar version) "tends to widen the gap with the official, such as the one with settlement."
While what the Central did at a glance is not as effective in curbing the loop, The CNV is expected to accompany this measure with one that imposes a minimum term to have the bond between purchase and sale in the portfolio, which adds the price risk.
The board of the CNV was meeting last night with the objective of reinforcing the BCRA measure with a resolution that discourages this operation. "It is not for cash with liquidation, it is to curb the roller," they explained from the agency.
"With obstacles or not, the MEP dollar and cash will continue to be valid for a company that cannot buy foreign currency. It is the only way to dollarize"said Santiago López Alfaro, partner and director of Delphos Investment.
Meanwhile, Amilcar Collante, an economist at Cesur, stressed that the roller will remain the same, "a little stretched but will continue." In addition, he explained that "every time they close it, more will continue that restriction via prices somewhere, or more sophisticated or more informal, but at some point that kind of parallel change will be seen."
It should be noted that on Wednesday, with the wholesale price of $ 56.18, the MEP dollar closed at 63.50 and the cash account was operated at around $ 66.30.
While For this Thursday, in the market they expect that the two versions of the US Dollar (the MEP and the settlement abroad) will bring their price closer, after the BCRA brake on the loop.
"Gate 12" in the ALYC
It happens that with the arrival of the exchange rate the demand for companies and people increased that to make more than $ 10,000 they had to resort to the capital market, buying a bond in pesos and selling it in its dollar version. The counterpart of that operation is the financial loop that those who can buy currencies in the market, and who sell them end up with 6% more pesos in their hands.
"We are having many account openings, to the point that we had to increase working hours to register so many new accounts," said Flavia Matsuda of InvertirOnline. "People ask to open accounts for that, to make the loop," he added, just before knowing the measure of the Central.
As explained by the analyst of the stock market (ALYC, as they are currently called) most of the new accounts are from retail investors, some even without knowing what the operation is about, but tempted to make a good difference in a matter of minutes "As more news portals appear, more people add up," he said.
In another recognized stock exchange company in the city, they highlighted that on Tuesday they had orders to open more than 500 new accounts, all seeking to take advantage of the financial loop. "It would have been expected that the news comes out in financial media, but it reached generalist media and even in some television channels they explained how to earn 7% in one day," they commented in the City.
In the numbers, this resulted not only in an increase in negotiated volume, but rather in an exponential growth in the amount of operations carried out, which shows the demand of small savers for titles such as Bonar 24, one of the most used To do this operation.
According to Martín Prus, operator of DMA Brokers, from his Twitter account, in the last days more than 7,000 operations were made with Bonar 24, when a couple of weeks ago the average did not exceed 1,000 transactions. In addition, the average amount of the operation is now about US $ 2,000, when before the PASO it was around US $ 8,000.
That caused the systems to collapse at times, which meant that some operations could not be completed by BYMA. "On Tuesday, daily record levels of 100,000 operations were processed with more than 500,000 order events," explained from BYMA, where they stressed that "the inconveniences were limited and that the rest of the operation was carried out normally ".
In Bull Market Broker they reported from their Twitter account about the disadvantages of BYMA in receiving orders issued from our platform. "We are in contact with the ByMA team to solve the aforementioned problem as soon as possible," they wrote.
"Most businesses are going through the topic of the loop. All inquiries come from that side," said Leonardo Svirsky, trader of Bull Market, who added that "there is a lot of demand to open accounts.".
It is imminent, however, that the regulations of the CNV arrive, not only to tighten the obstacles but also to give details to the ALYC regarding the way in which they must verify that the client actually left the dollars parked five days, as required Now the Central.
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