Good market signal: the price of the future dollar fell more than 15%

This morning, and after the measures taken yesterday by the government and the Central Bank to contain the dollar – exchange control for companies and individuals – the US currency was trading at $ 65 per unit in some homebanking. The opening was $ 63 at Banco Nación and an hour later it had already dropped $ 6 (-6.6%), to $ 57. The official closing last Friday had been $ 61.

After noon, the average number of entities published by the BCRA indicated $ 60.05 and the wholesaler, $ 56. But one of the "surprises", relief for the market according to the operators – a signal in the middle of the storm, will pass others – came on the side of the price of the future dollar.

The future dollar is made up of contracts between private parties that mark a reference and are traded on term. Based on an estimate of what the exchange rate will be, the parties agree to buy or sell at those values ​​in a certain time: one of them must pay the difference with the real price. That does not mean that in December, by case, the dollar will be at that established price.

Half an hour after closing, the position at December was trading at about $ 70, with a drop of more than 15% compared to Friday's close. That of October, meanwhile, also had a drop of more than 15%, around $ 60.8.

"For the holiday in the US and local measures, today is not a normal day. The fall in futures is taking a fall in the spot, which fell a couple of pesos with about USD 20 million operated. In the future, before closing, USD 145 million were operated, which is a high figure for a day without activity in the US, and the price falls 10% short and 11% falls, "he said Andrés Ponte, President of Matba-Rofex, the country's main futures market, both grains and currencies (merged last August)

"Low prices are a good sign, but you have to wait until tomorrow, with a purer market," Ponte said.

"The measures cleared the way: high demand for companies and individuals with high assets disappeared. The exporters are forced to liquidate and that impacts. A market unbalanced with many buyers and few sellers, is now more even. The official dollar will be calm and futures, the nearest position, that of September, and the longest ones is also going down $ 5. November operates at $ 70.5 with a drop of 7 pesos, "he said. Christian Gardel, economist and trader of coins.

"The expectations on the official dollar are diluted and there seems to be upward pressure. With this dynamic, the Government says, that it will arrive quietly in December, is what is read now in the market. It will depend on the regulations for those who buy USD 10,000 per month: if they have to justify income to buy everything will be very quiet"he said.

"The first reaction is positive for the liquidation that exporters will have to do. Likewise, the first important test will be tomorrow. We must look at the dynamics of deposits," explained analyst Gustavo Ber, from Estudio Ber.

One of the measures dYesterday, the Central Bank was forcing companies to enter within the next five days all exports not settled until now. The figure would total about USD 10,000 million, according to estimates that circulated among the cereal companies yesterday, although it is also necessary to add sales of refrigerators and other relevant sectors. That will impact the exchange market and, of course, the dollar futures market.