confidence is rising … but remains very low

The preliminary index of the sentiment of the American consumers for the month of September 2019 came out at 92, against 91 of consensus of place and 89,8 at the end of August. Recall that the indicator was still at the low of three years last month, which puts in perspective this apparent good performance of the day. The major factor that had plagued US confidence last month was of course the Sino-US trade war and its tariffs, which, however, seem to be easing in recent days as a high-level meeting between the Chinese and American delegations at the beginning of October in Washington.

Stocks and sales of US companies for the month of July 2019 have also just been published. Inventories increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, compared to a consensus of about 0.3% and a virtually zero increase in June 2019.