Ms. Pimchanok Wonkornporn Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTP) Revealed that the Ministry of Commerce is preparing to hold a war room meeting. Join related departments Monitor the impact of the trade war between the United States and China and the exit from the European Union of England (Brexit) on 7 October 2019 before presenting the guidelines discussed at the meeting Joint Committee of Public and Private Sector (Commercial Bank), which has Mr. Jurin Laksanawisit, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce Chaired the meeting to accept 2 issues affecting the global economy and Thailand. Must therefore expedite the discussion to determine the position And the way that Thailand should act To cope with the fluctuations that will occur
However, the trade war Even now, the United States And China will have formal negotiations. But the speech by US President Donald Trump At the united nations It seems unfavorable to create a good atmosphere in negotiations, but the United States considers itself to have better cards. With the last set of slowdown taxes now being raised by the group of $ 250 billion from 25% to 30% and the second group of $ 35 billion to raise 554, including import duties. Save Cards for Automotive and Parts Products under Article 232 of the United States' Trade Extension Law Under investigation And will announce the result on Nov 14, 2019. These 2 measures will have a great impact on China. And other countries will also be affected.
The US and China tax increases do not affect only between the two countries and in Asia. But spread to the European side as well Seen from the German economy. Which accounts for 28% of the eurozone and is an export-oriented country like Thailand Began to signal badly, all economic numbers decreased The GDP growth in the second quarter contracted by 0.1% compared to the first quarter of the year. The Manufacturing Production Index and the domestic service sector contracted in several months. Especially the automotive industry that is about to be affected by the new tax barrier from the United States in November.
"The result of countermeasures by the United States and China has caused more impact on world trade than expected. As a result, both the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reduced their expectations of global economic growth and global trade. The world economy this year is down from 3.6% to 2.9%. The WTO estimates that it will be at 2.6% in 2019, down from 10% in the previous year, while the IMF reduced it from 3.5% to 3.2%. "
As for the current Brexit problem Found to be quite tricky and still didn't see the solution Although scheduled for October 31, 2019 is approaching The Brexit that may not be agreed (no deal Brexit) will make the German economy that trades with England to slow down further. In which Germany is the major economic engine of Europe If there is a problem it will cause Europe to grow slower than it should. In the past, the German government implemented policies carefully. Have low government debt Providing tools and the ability to implement policies that still use various measures Motivate in the future if necessary
In addition, not just the US-China conflict and the Brexit problem There is still a growing vulnerability in the Middle East. Which may affect the oil price And affecting the global economy Which must keep an eye on
However, in Thailand, it has been found that Affected by the slowdown in countries around the world, exports decreased by 4% in the past August. And the internal economy has not recovered well. Causing the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to reduce its GDP growth projections and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has no policy to raise interest rates As the relaxed monetary policy will help support economic growth. And allowing the headline inflation rate to return to the target framework Therefore, it is advisable to maintain the policy interest rate. Which the said decision might make the baht to increase further And affecting the value and income from exports
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