Analysis: Four questions to understand the crisis by the attack in Saudi Arabia

Do you think that Iran is effectively behind the drone attacks?

– Iran is very likely to be behind this important strategic attack. The United States has to give evidence that drones, or missiles, were fired from Iran or from Iraq – already ruled out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – even by Pro-Iranian Shiite militias. But even if the Houthis did it, in my opinion it was an Iranian operation, with its precise intelligence, training and possible control on the ground.

What consequences could it have in the short term?

– At the moment there is a serious economic problem worldwide, although President (Donald) Trump has promised to help with US oil reserves. It seems that Saudi Arabia's reaction is quite silent considering the magnitude of the event and the damage. It is in a position of weakness while entangled without much success in the Yemen War. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also not responded strongly to previous attacks against oil tankers in the Gulf (Persian) and Iran has seen this as weakness and has kidnapped another tanker today. Trump was in a negotiation process with the Iranians and not far from a meeting with Rouhani. This was also seen by Iranian leaders as weaknesses, and now bets have increased. Although Trump's latest tweet has hinted at a military response (the United States "locked and loaded depending on verification"), all of his actions recently in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Gulf) have shown that he is not ready for a military challenge against Iran. Let's see if Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will have the guts to attack important Iranian assets and, therefore, will drag President Trump into a necessary reprisal against Iran.

How do you respond to an aggression that is not done directly, but through a third party, as might be the case?

– The Gulf countries have supported Arab separatists, Baluchi and possibly Kurds in Iran in the past. Iran accused Saudi Arabia of having supported the cells of the Islamic State (ISIS) – with Kurdish members – who attacked the Iranian Parliament and the mausoleum of (ayatollah) Khomeini in June 2017. The Gulf states also they have some influence on the Sunnis in Iraq, and even part of the Iraqi political establishment. They could foster something in Iraq.

How far will this climb go?

– At the moment it is not clear. At least it will stop the secret negotiations between the United States and Iran. As for a massive military response, it is difficult to see that it comes from the United States at an election time. It will be interesting how this will affect the public, and especially the internal and regional position of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed bin Salman.