Certainty and uncertainty about the Trade War share the market, fortunately there is an analyst who anticipates a week "like Lehman" and the return of the former Philip Morris that occupies us.
The Audio of August 28, 2019
Anticyclone on Twitter
Trump was not very active on Twitter yesterday. He did not insult anyone, did not take the lead with any Chinese, Powell is still alive and no racist comments were recorded before the closing last night.
It only remained for us to stir up the air while waiting for something to happen. During such periods, which often fall on Tuesdays, the market tends to rehash the "investor sentiment" – which is the most subjective thing that can be found on the world stock exchanges, but let's move on – in Europe on felt "reassured on the theme of the Trade War and we bet on the hopes to see Trump return one day to the negotiating table. Which allowed us to end the day slightly higher. On the other hand, although they had opened up, Americans deflated to finish slightly down because of, I quote: "the uncertainty that surrounds the Trade War" … Like what it always depends on the point of view where we place ourselves.
Philip Morris picks up the pieces
Fortunately we had a couple of other things to study to get a little over the Trade War-Pas Trade War concept that is starting to get deeply inflating, to say the least. Yesterday, Philip Morris and Altria announced that they are discussing a merger in equal parts. For those who were not in the market in 2008 or who had already quit smoking, the two companies were born from the split of Philip Morris in 2008. One who fought against the new fashion of the Healthy in the USA and the other which was trying to develop the dirty habits of tobacco abroad – especially for those who did not smoke already.
Except that it's not easy, since more and more people have taken the dirty habit of wanting to smoke, or stop smoking altogether – which is largely unbearable. Last night, the two companies announced they wanted to regroup and leave themselves some time to find an agreement, an agreement that is not yet guaranteed. If, at first Altria has celebrated the news – the lack of guarantees displayed by the management of the two boxes has made plunge the two titles, which makes Altria even more interesting at the level of the dividend for those who do not have.
Takada warns you
One of the biggest bearish on the planet reworked his speech for us to serve it again yesterday. Masanari Takada, a nervous breakdown analyst and another attempted suicide at Nomura, has released a new report that says the market is in danger and that it could end up in a situation similar to that of Lehman Brothers mid-September 2008 – c It is still funny that 11 years later, we speak again of the Philip Morris DE-merger which took place in 2008 and the Lehman KRACH which took place the same year. Like what, the stock market is an eternal beginning.
So Takada believes that the lack of volume at the approach of Labor Day, the reversal of the 2-year and 10-year curve and the general instability could redo the worst-case scenario of 11 years ago. He thinks that electronic managements and all who follow the trends could trigger a massive sell-off. If it's not this week, it'll be next week.
You will have been warned
The advantage of this kind of announcement is that it occupies us for at least two days and like that, if Trump decides to strike the tweet until Sunday we will discuss about the coffee machine .
And above all, it's not that we will need to wait a long time, since according to Takada, it could or should happen just before the long weekend of Labor Day. Labor Day is next Monday. So get out the helmets and remember that between the beginning of September 2008 and the bottom of the hole in November, the market was smashed by more than 40%.Yes, I like putting scary numbers and when you put the word Krach and Lehman Brothers in the same column, there is more traffic. And people read because they think I know something when NOT AT ALL! By cons, without wanting to provoc ', if the market must be dismantled as in 2008 – it should a bank crack like in 2008 – so who?
Well, we can not say bad, but if we had to choose one, I can not say his name, but it would start with D and it would not end … eutsche Bank that it would not surprise me .
Asia and gold
This morning Asia does nothing, oil goes back to $ 55, gold still skates in its range 1500-1550, but seldom have we been so sure of something. And this something is that gold will go up. The feeling of certainty that the end of the bull market is approaching, that the recession is coming (with the curves of 10 years and 2 years having fun climbing on every other day) and with a market that was no longer as bizarre (not to say stupid) as since the Great Depression – according to experts (experts who were not there BEFORE the Great Depression). The certainties about gold are simply obvious.
Not to mention that if Takada is right, the gold will be at 2000 before the end of the month.
News of the day
In the news of the day, we talk about Philip Morris and Altria, the rate curve that plays upside down, a former Google engineer gone to UBER who allegedly stole secrets from Google, although it does not did not hide it, we look at the market sentiment indicator: Trump's Twitter account and the Chinese government's, while waiting for the supreme Krach (as expected ) that will make the Great Depression look like an electric car ride.
For the moment the futures are slightly up and we expect the consumer climate in Germany and oil inventories in the US. In the meantime, you have time to go for a coffee and stuff yourself with croissants.
Have a great day and see you tomorrow! If you really want it !
Thomas Veillet
Investir.ch
"You want a friend in Washington? Get a dog. "- Harry S Truman
Source link
https://www.investir.ch/2019/08/joue-la-comme-lehman/
