Biden’s comeback driven by moderates and women. The next challenge is to conquer the Hispanics

The first element that surprised us was the turnout. Sanders has always maintained that he is the best choice, because he has created a movement that brings millions of abstentionists and young people to the vote. There was a participation surge, but instead of pushing Bernie, he raised Joe. The voters who ran to the polls were not boys excited by the socialist promises of the Senator from Vermont, but women, middle-aged, moderate, centrist, undecided, independent, and perhaps even Republicans who can’t stand Donald. If this trend were confirmed it would not only serve to win the democratic nomination, but could indicate a path to take away the White House from Trump. The electoral flows in fact reveal that in addition to blacks, even middle and lower class whites voted massively for Joe. They are former Democrats who abandoned Hillary in 2016, making a difference in favor of Trump in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and in part Ohio. If Biden, the son of a modest family from Scranton, manages to bring them home, Donald risks losing a decisive advantage.

The data that worries the former vice president is his weakness between young people and Hispanics. The former often don’t go to vote, but the latter are critical to getting nominated and winning in November. Biden knows he will have to work on these groups, and in fact the first thing he said Tuesday night in Los Angeles is that he will do immigration reform, create citizenship for illegal immigrants, and prevent the deportation of dreamers.

Bloomberg’s support is important, although Sanders will accuse him of being friends with billionaires, for at least three reasons: money, organization and New York. Before Super Tuesday Joe’s crates were empty: he will now have unlimited funding, albeit through an external Super Pac organization. The campaign was disorganized, without offices and volunteers in states like California and Texas, but now it will be possible to rely on structures and talents hired by Mike. The former mayor of New York can then be decisive in winning the primaries in his state.

As for Sanders, Jennifer Palmieri, director of communication for Obama and Clinton, explains to me: “Now the Hillary-Bernie duel between moderates and progressives will be repeated, but with two differences: Joe is a different person, and the turnout favors him. Even in view of November the situation is different. In 2016 many sanderists did not vote for Hillary, leading to defeat, because they thought that much would win anyway. Now they know that staying at home they will guarantee Trump’s reelection, and they will think twice ».

The reasoning of Biden’s advisors for the rest of the primaries is this: if Sanders did not detach us in California, where conquisterà the delegates to beat us? On Tuesday, Michigan, Washington, Idaho, North Dakota, and southern states such as Mississippi and Missouri, who have so far helped Joe, vote. On the 17th, it’s Florida, where Bernie’s pro Castro comments hurt him, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. If Biden retains even the slightest advantage of delegates and reaches the brokered convention, Bernie has already said that whoever has the relative majority deserves the nomination.

Trump will return to attack on Ukraine and Biden Hunter’s troubled son in November, but the Democrats are already looking for material on Donald’s children and Jared Kushner to respond.