It seemed that Hong Kong, thanks to its much more advanced social system than the rest of the China, had done an exemplary job in containing the coronavirus. Officially, few hundreds had been infected and only 4 dead. Since the beginning of March, these results had encouraged local authorities to slow down containment measures: return to work, crowded public transport, reopening of bars and restaurants. Instead, in the last few days, there has been an unexpected peak of new infections, a hundred only last Sunday. So the restrictive measures have been reintroduced: people in solitary confinement at home, prohibited parks, prohibition of meeting more than four people outdoors, closed cinemas. For Francesco Sisci, ex columnist de The sun 24 hours and already corresponding de The print in Beijing, “what is happening in Hong Kong gives an exact measure of what will happen to us too. This virus has a still strong infection capacity, lowering the measurements is a very serious mistake, even when it seems that the infections are decreasing “. This situation, adds Sisci, “also signals the seriousness of an economic condition destined to become more and more serious, given that the infection has now affected almost all the countries in the world. It means reduced trade until you find a drug that can cure the disease or a vaccine. “
Hong Kong, where everything seemed to be back to normal, is again under contagion. What does it mean?
The same thing is happening in Japan and it is indicative of what the prospect of contagion may be in Europe and America.
An endless struggle? Or was something missing in Hong Kong?
It seemed that the infection had been brought under control. Instead, we are witnessing a new explosion in Japan too, where the infection was thought to have been prevented. It is evident that perhaps a relaxation of prevention measures has occurred in both Hong Kong and Japan, while the virus infection capacity unfortunately continues to be strong.
China is also reopening to normal. Too soon?
In indirect confirmation of this, as already said, in China it is not known when the plenary session of Parliament, which was scheduled for 5 March, will take place. Which tells us the situation has improved, but not yet normalized, nor is it visible when it can return to normal. All this helps us understand the reference horizon that we must keep in mind when looking at the situation in Italy, Europe and the USA.
In Hong Kong it was found that passengers arriving from outside had brought part of the new infections, so much so that they decided to suspend all international flights. Does this tell us that we could live long in a world without communications and barriers?
Yes, also because the contagion is not limited in one country, but spreads everywhere. There are no “healthy” places to communicate freely. In fact, a number of barriers also exist within China, several cities are isolated from each other. The outlook in the coming months is that there may be a global slowdown in transport.
In addition to the social problem, from the economic point of view what impact will this isolation have?
A gigantic impact. Already today we are witnessing a situation reminiscent of the financial recession of 1929. Huge amounts of money are being introduced compared to then, but if international transport and trade decrease, everything contracts. People don’t leave home and don’t consume, production also slows down. The economic downturn will be severe, the recovery will begin to be seen only when we have an effective drug or a vaccine. But it will not be easy anyway, we will face great difficulties, because in the meantime the world economy will be as if it ended under a bombing.
We are used to living in a world now globalized in many ways. Is it possible to think, perhaps for a short time, of a return to more localized economic systems?
Such a thing will happen, but it will mean a huge contraction in our lifestyle. International trade is a powerful multiplier of opportunities: if it fails, it is as if we gave up using the machine. Of course, we can always travel on foot, but it will be much more tiring and difficult.
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