The euro-dollar continues to show weakness, appearing just below the 1.08 area. Are you expecting a return to the period lows or a recovery from current values?
In this phase the euro-dollar in my opinion is more in the trading range, also because this week there are no particular data or events for which we should think of lower values than the current ones.
I expect that in the short term the cross will remain in trading, range, it being understood that the trend is more bearish than bullish for over a year now.
We are in a long-term lateral-bearish trend and therefore not excluded that the euro-dollar may drop to test the previous minimum of the period, even if I currently see movements in the area between 1.08 and 1.12.
In the event that the cross breaks the lows in the 1.065 area, it would have a first target in the 1.06 area and a subsequent target at 1.05.
I struggle to be a buyer on the euro-dollar right now as the trend is bearish, but if it proves to have the strength to continue in the trading range it could also return to the 1.12 area.
For this week, however, I am more likely to expect a movement for the euro-dollar between 1.08 and 1.10.
Gold is lengthening its pace and seems to be aiming for $ 1,650. Is there room for further increases?
Gold is drawing a good figure and in my opinion it has all the appeal to return above $ 1,700 to be highly attractive in trading.
In the event of an upward breach of the recent highs in the $ 1,700 area, the gold target is ambitious, with a target of $ 1,800 first, but also further thereafter.
At current prices, do not open longs in any case, at least until the price exceeds the $ 1,700 threshold, where there is a very strong resistance that has already rejected prices three times.
However, if gold breaks this obstacle, it will start flying, remembering that the first strong support is just under $ 1,600, while the next, which has worked better, is around $ 1,450.
I would not evaluate interventions on gold on weakness but on strength certainly.
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Oil returns today after the run of the last two sessions. What can you tell us about this asset?
Oil has undoubtedly moved in the last few sessions, but we should see how realistic the data coming from China is regarding a little recovery.
The latter seems to me a little on paper, but it cannot be excluded that some demand for raw materials will come from the Asian country.
However, the delta between supply and demand is still important and therefore the one in progress is an upward adjustment movement, only linked to the expectations that OPEC can reduce production, so as to create the “rarity” effect of the product and therefore lead to more important prices.
The economic cycle does not seem to me to see an expansionary phase, but it could continue to recover and much will depend on OPEC.
The whole area of up to $ 30 is a resistance zone, while support is around $ 26-25.
If the oil were to exceed 30 dollars it could go up to 32 dollars, even if at the moment I don’t see reasons for such a scenario, given the current macro picture.
In light of what has been said so far, what indications can you give us for the stock exchanges?
As for the stock exchanges, we can say that suddenly more than optimistic people are hopeful now.
Spring in the air invites this hope, combined with an improvement in the contagion curve and the approach of an Easter that will be lived in a very particular way, but it will still be Easter.
This makes everyone a little more hopeful and until particularly bad news arrives, he invites the stock exchanges to rise slowly.
However, if we look at the deepening of the recent collapse, at the volumes with which it materialized that have always been increasing, up to reaching the peak on the minimum, it is clear that what is underway is a rise dictated by hope and not with solid foundations .
The numbers are bad, expectations are bleak and the market still does not know the unknowns, but with the arrival of the next quarterly we will understand that we have entered a bear market.
I am about to ride every trend, therefore carpe diem, but the problem will be whether all this recovery will end with a single important candle on the other side.
In the meantime, however, you can also be present on the market, but the parachute must now be gigantic, because the volumes tell us of a stock market that goes up because the crumbs are being contained in terms of exchanges.
We are in a strange bear market because in the time when in the past doubt would have flashed, we have already gone to the bottom.
We have gone from the bull to being deeply bear in two weeks and personally I expect other falls, but with a slow and less vigorous evolution of that seen so far.
