The productive heart of the country was hit, worried by the blockages of the activities

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The concern for Veneto and Lombardy entrepreneurs is that the spread of coronavirus extends to an extent that requiresisolation of entire areas and territories. “This would have a disruptive effect in the negative because it would freeze the local economy. We hope it is not necessary to get there, even if we are aware that in the face of the delicacy of the situation, quarantine and isolation are the only useful weapons to contain the advance of the virus “, Paolo Zabeo, coordinator of theCGIA study office, lMestre Craftsmen and Small Businesses Association.

Will coronavirus also worsen the health of the Italian economy? It is too early to give an answer, it is premature to hazard predictions in terms of numbers and percentages. Certainly, however, Covid-19, with the infection for now located in the two key regions of the production system, has hit the country’s economy at heart. In Lombardy and Veneto, where the list of infected people continues to lengthen, please do not have to update the death toll and meanwhile work to contain and stop the advance of the virus, in companies and industries they hope that the situation no worse. Coronavirus also affected the area of ​​Piacenza, an important district for logistics and the production of machines to produce. And in an already fragile general picture, with the International Monetary Fund which for 2020 foresees a cut in the global GDP estimate of 0.1 points, of 0.4 for China, with the Chinese giant already bent by a considerable fall in its production as a result of the spread of the new virus, Covid-19 could fall like a cleaver on our economy. Braked by an industry that sets the pace, as Istat recently pointed out, recordsndo – and it hasn’t happened for 5 years – a reduction of orders e revenue on average of the year, a turnover in 2019 decreased by 0.3%, orders dropped by 1.9% and therefore a negative balanceor, in this case the first since 2014.

The Governor of the Bank of Italy forecast a few decimal points less on GDP growth in relation to the spread of the virus – Zabeo points out – The year-end forecasts for 2020 stood at 0.6, but probably due to the effects of the coronavirus will hit 0.2-0.3. But it is difficult to predict the extent of the fallout also because the issue is worldwide. The blockade of part of the production in China will also have effects, for example, on the German and Italian economies. ” Some consequences of the advance of the virus have already been registered, the coordinator of theCGIA Mestre research office, in the tourism sector, with the drastic decrease in travel and in the luxury sector – “where the Chinese are very present” – and certainly “the food sector will also be affected”, he underlines. In Veneto, where the first death from contagion of Covid-19 was recorded and where the President of the Region Luca Zaia has agreed with the rectors the closure of all universities from next week, the fear is that the spread of the virus will spread in a measure that requires the isolation of areas and territories, as has already happened in the Lodi area. “This – concludes Zabeo – would have a disruptive effect in the negative because it would freeze the local economy. We hope it is not necessary to get there, even if we are aware that in the face of the delicacy of the situation, quarantine and isolation are the only useful weapons to contain the advance of the virus “.

So there is concern, but don’t panic. This is the mood that reigns, albeit with different shades depending on the sector, among Venetian entrepreneurs. Many are already working to expand the internal security procedures to be followed from Monday, to the reopening of the companies while, thanks to the Carnival, the schools will remain closed.

In short, it is still too early to assess the true effects on the economy of the worsening epidemic, for now the concerns seem more tied to external factors and the psychological reaction of people than to the ‘business’ trend itself. “This morning I heard some business colleagues and they are all working on the internal protocols to follow. From a strictly economic point of view, so far the concern is not the contagion, but the brutal slowdown of the Chinese market “, explained Luciano Vescovi, president of Confindustria Vicenza.

A market, that of Beijing, which on the other hand is the eleventh outlet for exports of goods from the industries of Padua and Treviso and which, between 2008 and 2018, climbed 5 positions in the ranking (it was sixteenth). The total value of exported goods increased from 296 million euros in 2008 to 537 million in 2018. A leap of 81.4% (Treviso + 73.1%, from 201 to 348 million; Padua + 99.1%, from 95 to 189 million), but the relative share is still very limited, equal to 2.3% of total exports. The issue of ‘supplies’ is more worrying. As regards imports, in 2018 Padua and Treviso imported goods (raw materials, semi-finished products) from China for a value of one billion 832 million (+ 0.4%); the trade balance is therefore negative. “We have signs from the big industry of a slowdown in production because they have less raw material and less seeds processed by China,” said Agostino Bonomo, president of Confartigianato Veneto.

The same sentiment also in Lombardy, where another case of coronavirus was registered in the late afternoon, the first in Milan. From Monday the Court of Milan will remain closed to the public, while the companies of the city and of the hinterland are gearing up to face the epidemic that hit the Lower Lodi area in accordance with the provisions of the Ministry of Health and the Lombardy Region. From this morning the staff offices of large groups such as Eni, Snam and Saipem began to contact one by one the employees who reside in the municipalities in the province of Lodi indicated among those at risk, giving them the indication to stay at home and avoid social contacts as much as possible. The President of the Lombardy Region announced that he had “received reassurances” from the Government on possible interventions in support of companies affected by the effects of the coronavirus. In Confindustria the situation is observed, hoping that it will not get worse. But the signs that the record is recording are not encouraging. “The picture is worrying – says a source to HuffPost – this is why we must not emphasize fear, insist on concern, because doing this amplifies social feelings in the negative, with inevitable repercussions also on the economic level”.





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https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/colpito-il-cuore-produttivo-del-paese-preoccupato-dai-blocchi-delle-attivita_it_5e517ac6c5b6b82aa653d065

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