YouTrend survey, center-right united for the first time over 50%: Salvini and Meloni in flight

The drama, for the Giallorossi coalition that supports the Conte 2 government, is that the polls have yet to "discount", as they say in jargon, the Ilva effect. That is to say: what will be the reaction of the voters to the possible closure of the first European steelworks, with the potential loss of about 15 thousand jobs? It is difficult to think of a positive judgment, with all that follows from the consensus of the political forces that support the executive.

Yes, the consents. They are steep, let alone what could happen if the situation in Taranto falls further. Meanwhile, what ends today was still a nightmare week for the Giallorossi. Because the traditional report that every two weeks YouTrend and Agi take stock of the balance of power between the coalitions and between the majority area and the opposition, certifies that the center-right never travels with the wind in its sails like now. And what a wind: for the first time the alliance between the League, the Brothers of Italy and Forza Italia breaks through the wall of 50% of the votes. 50.6%, to be precise. Result that confirms the existence of a "long wave" of the center-right that began with the victory of the coalition in Umbria.

OVERSEAN TRAILER
The League is, of course, the leader of the coalition. Matteo Salvini's party, compared to fifteen days ago, is still growing: now it reaches 33.4%. Almost one percentage point higher than the previous survey. And Brothers of Italy is also fine, which instead increases by a dry point. Performance which for Giorgia Meloni's party is 9.2% of the votes. "Objectives and percentages never reached before", the party president rejoices, who even sees the results of the National Alliance on hand. The only drawback, in the center-right, are the difficulties of Forza Italia, which however seems to have stopped the bleeding. The party of Silvio Berlusconi, in fact, grappling with a lively internal debate between the moderate wing of Mara Carfagna and the pro-Northern League, remains substantially stable compared to fifteen days ago: at 6.9% on 24 November, in fact, it acts as to counter the 6.8% of 7 November.

The numbers of the three main parties of the center-right are lined up, plus those of the smaller connected lists, such as Cambiamo by Giovanni Toti, the result is, in fact, 50.6%. Figure that the opposition alliance could not boast even on the occasion of the birth of the Conte 2 government, when the center-right was 46.3%. Then the two blocks – the Giallorossi and the Lega-FdI-FI trident – were almost equivalent. This means that in less than two months the gap has widened to the current seven and a half points. The message is clear: the more the executive acts, the more it becomes "recognizable" to the voters, the more it encourages the rejection of the Italians. That's why at Palazzo Chigi – and not only that – they are terrified by the game being played on the Ilva.

The government now appears to be a Via Crucis: first the negotiation for the rescue of the iron and steel pole, then the mother of all electoral battles. That is the elections in Emilia Romagna, Sunday 26 January. Tensions, and appointments with the polls, which so far have been reflected – negatively – on the health of the red and yellow majority. Never so poorly. The M5S-Pd-LeU-Italia Viva alliance reaches an all-time low of 43.1%. The major difficulties are facing the pentastellars, which compared to 24 October leave an additional 1.2% on the ground. Now they are at 17.5%.

CROLLO M5S
It is worth mentioning that when the second Executive Conte was born, the M5S had partially reversed its course, once again exceeding – albeit slightly – 20%. In practice in just over two months, the grillini have lost over three percentage points. As for the Democratic Party, which claimed 19.1% a couple of weeks ago, it fell to 18.7%. It is from the beginning of the Zingaretti secretariat that the dems, who still have to deal with a split, did not reach such a low level. Italy Viva and the left of LeU remain at stake. Matteo Renzi's party, despite the media hype, grew by just 0.1%, reaching 4.8%. While LeU must settle for 2.1%.

by Tommaso Montesano