Who won and who lost in Spain

Sunday he voted in Spain to elect a new parliament, for the second time in less than a year and the fourth in the last four years. As had already happened with the April vote, the elections did not reveal any clear majority, neither right nor left, although they confirmed the first place of the Socialist Party (PSOE), the main left-wing Spanish party. There are, however, several other things to say, starting with the triumph of Vox, a radical anti-immigration and anti-feminist right-wing party that has more than doubled its seats, becoming the third political force in Spain.

1. The PSOE won, but in half
As had happened in the last elections, those held in April, this time too the most voted party was the PSOE led by the outgoing prime minister Pedro Sanchez, who got 28.3 percent of the votes. Despite the victory of seven percentage points over the second, the Popular Party (PP), for the PSOE, on Sunday it can be considered a half victory. In fact, Sanchez's party has lost three seats compared to the April vote, going from 123 to 120 and losing its first-place position in some Spanish provinces, especially in the northwest, traditionally more conservative: it had never happened in Spain that the winning party election got less than 123 seats.

The PSOE failed to achieve the goal it had set for the convening of early elections: to strengthen its presence in parliament to depend less on other political forces, which for one reason or another had made the formation of a new government.

2. Vox became the third party
The real winner of Sunday's elections was undoubtedly Vox, who had first entered the national parliament in April, after years of almost total political irrelevance. Vox benefited above all from the crisis in Catalonia, showing itself as the most intransigent party against Catalan independentists, badly tolerated in many areas of Spain.

Vox took 15.2 percent of the votes, equal to 52 seats, more than twice those obtained seven months ago (24), and became the third political force in Spain behind only the two large traditional parties in the country, the PSOE and the PP. Vox was the first party in the autonomous community of Murcia, in the south of Spain, where it obtained about 10 thousand more votes than the PP, and in that of Ceuta, one of the two Spanish exclaves in Morocco (the other is Melilla). It has also established itself as the first party in several municipalities of the autonomous community of Madrid, especially south of the capital.

Having exceeded 50 deputies, Vox will also be able to file unconstitutional appeals against the laws approved by parliament, something that the party leader, Santiago Abascal, would have already wanted to do in the past, for example against the Law on historical memory (which forbids between the other things symbols related to the Franco period) and the law on gender violence.

3. The defeat in half of the "other left": Unidas Podemos and Mas Pais
If the PSOE managed not to lose too much compared to April, the same cannot be said of Unidas Podemos, a leftist coalition whose main force is Podemos, a party led by Pablo Iglesias. Unidas Podemos took 10.7 percent of the votes, equal to 28 seats, 7 less than those obtained in April. For Iglesias, however, it was a half-defeat, because the coalition managed to stay fourth in the Congress and to be once again indispensable for the formation of a left-wing government.

Much worse it went to Ínigo Errejon, former co-founder of Podemos and now head of Mas Pais, who had presented himself as an alternative to Sanchez and Iglesias, hoping to exploit the discontent that had spread to the left due to the failure of the last negotiations for form a government. Mas Pais took only 1.7 per cent of the votes, equal to 2 seats, failing to achieve either of the objectives set before the elections: forming a parliamentary group of his own and being decisive for the formation of a hypothetical government of left.

4. The PP has taken the rest of the right
The PP, which had obtained the worst result in its history at the last elections, managed to recover something, confirming its second position at the national level: it took 21 percent of the votes, equal to 88 seats, 22 more than those obtained at April. Given how things had gone in the last year, for the Popular Party it is still a sufficient result, even if very far from the times of the governments of the former Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

The PP has recovered some moderate votes from the right wing, especially as a reaction to the rise of Vox, something that has failed in Ciudadanos, another center-right party that until recently competed with the PP to become the first force national conservative policy. Ciudadanos left the elections with broken bones: he took 6.8 percent of the votes, equal to 10 seats, 47 less than in April (yes, 47). It is difficult to explain the reasons for such a collapse, but it is possible that the rise of Vox has much to do with the defeat of Ciudadanos, which for many years was considered by many as the party most hostile to Catalan independence, which had earned him many acclaim.

After the results were released, Rivera called an extraordinary congress for his party and then announced his resignation.

5. Never so many Catalan independentist deputies in the Congress
Another significant finding in these last elections was the result in Catalonia, where the independence parties obtained 43 percent of the votes, equal to 23 seats in the national parliament, a result never achieved before. The first party was ERC (Esquerra Republicana, left-wing pro-independence) with 13 seats; then the Catalan section of the PSOE (12 seats), Junts per Catalunya (center-right independence, 8 seats), En Comu Podem (left, 7 seats), and several parties with two seats, including the CUP (leftist leftists), followed. radical).

There are some things to say about the result in Catalonia. First: it is increasingly difficult to speak of an "independence block", given the profound divisions that emerged in recent months among the parties that want secession from Spain. Second, Catalan independence has increased its support from the April elections, where it had taken 39.4 percent, but is still far from the 50 percent majority it has been aiming for many years. Third: the CUP achieved a historic result, because for the first time it obtained two seats in the national parliament. Fourth: despite being confirmed first in Catalonia, ERC has lost something compared to April, probably paying for its opening to a possible agreement with Pedro Sanchez's PSOE.

In general, the good result of Catalan independence, and the unsatisfactory result of the national left, could greatly complicate Sanchez's plans for government.

6. How is the government now?
As was the case in April, the result of the Sunday elections did not reveal any clear majority and the possible ways of forming a new government are very limited. To gain trust, the political leader appointed by the King can try two paths: either secure the 176 seats needed to obtain the absolute majority required in the first vote, or secure more favorable than contrary in the second vote (ie simple majority). As it is easy to understand, the first option is the most complicated, the second the most viable, because it also includes the possibility of counting on the abstention of different political forces.

The task of forming the new government will be given to Pedro Sanchez, leader of the most voted party and, numbers in hand, the only politician with some possibility of collecting the necessary consents to gain the trust.

According to Pais, the two most feasible, but also very complex, options would be two: either a PSOE government supported by Ciudadanos and with the abstention of the PP; or an agreement between PSOE, Unidas Podemos, the PNV Basques, other small parties and the abstention of ERC, the left-wing Catalan independentists, the same who caused the fall of the last Sanchez government. For the PSOE the negotiations will not be easy, also due to the very precarious relations that Sanchez has established in recent months both with Iglesias of Unidas Podemos, with whom he mutually accused him of having blown up the talks after the April elections, both with the Catalan independentists, who criticized him for having adopted increasingly harsh positions towards them.

Any solution to the government seems impossible for the right-wing blockade. The PP, the second most voted party, could try to get the support of Ciudadanos and Vox (non-discounted alliance) and in any case it would not be enough: it should ensure the abstention of a leftist force, the PSOE or Unidas Podemos, scenario considered to today impossible.