The red and the green of the two Emilias: on the left the big centers, the League in the province

«As soon as you move away from the larger cities, with a more“ open ”vision towards i changes, the sentiment of voters also changes considerably, together with the vote expressed – – explains Professor Marco Valbruzzi, coordinator of the Cattaneo Institute -. In Bologna a progressive, multicultural, pro-European and therefore very similar orientation to the Democratic Party is very prevalent. But it is enough to move into smaller municipalities and a feeling of "defense" prevails. It is in these contexts that the League breaks through ». A dynamic similar to the one that decreed the success of Brexit? "It is practically identical – adds Valbruzzi -. As we all know, in London it has won the "remain", but immediately outside the metropolis the pro Brexit block prevailed, decisively conditioning the final result ". The picture is clearly represented by the colors of the map that we publish, referring to the distribution of consents on the territory to the Europeans. The League has an overwhelming power in the Ferrarese and Polesine areas, where the Venetian influence is marked, to which must be added the effect of "forgotten periphery". A similar situation also appears throughout the Apennine belt, on the border with Tuscany. A large Northern League island between Forlì-Cesena must then be registered. Finally, there is the area to the north-west, between Parma and Piacenza, where the (not only geographical) proximity to the productive fabric of Lombardy weighs.

But it's a question of numbers, we said. And Valbruzzi is studying them meticulously: «Who will win between Bonaccini and Borgonzoni? The challenge, despite the polls give the League above 34%, is open and will be decided by a few votes ". In Emilia-Romagna, taking into consideration the results of the last European elections, there is a block between 990 thousand and one million voters who voted for the center-right; then there is the center-left one between 830-850,000 and finally the 5 Star Movement with about 290,000 votes. The data on electoral flows show that some of the M5S voters have already moved towards the League between the 2018 and the latest European policies. This explains that the movement's attitude will be decisive next January 26th. If Luigi Di Maio, with a "non-belligerent pact", decides not to present himself to the Regionals, the center-left will have more chance. Otherwise, the chances of winning would increase for the Lega, a scenario that would make the Giallorossi government tremble at Palazzo Chigi.

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