Elections Spain, first socialists but without majority. Sanchez: "The others let us govern". Fly Vox's right: he is 3rd party

To have repeated the political elections six months later it didn't help. There Spain finds himself thrown into the political chaos more than it was in April. And, indeed, the socialist prime minister's move Pedro Sanchez to bring the country back to the polls for the fourth time in 4 years (for the insisted refusal to have ministers of Podemos) weakens him and his possible allies and inflates the sails of Vox, the party of the nationalist and sovereign right that becomes the third party after PSOE and the Partido popular, surpassing your own Podemos is Ciudadanos, the two parties fed almost ten years ago from the season of the Indignados. Eleven months ago, as the leader pointed out Santiago Abascal, Vox had no representatives but a few councilors in remote villages: now he is represented in Brussels, has the beauty of 53 members of the congress of Madrid and is an essential component in some local bodies (including the Municipality of the capital, where the mayor Jose Luis Martinez-Almeida has the decisive support of Vox, and the Region of Andalusia, where the sovereigns give external support).

The result is that none of the possible post-election government alliances can reach a majority of 176 seats needed to govern. THE socialists together to the left of Podemos is Mas Paìs (small party born from a split of Podemos) do not exceed 158. I Popular with Vox and the Liberal Democrats of Ciudadanos they stop at 149. The parties considered by the electorate as responsible for the blockade of national institutions are particularly punished: the socialists who rejected the government pact with Podemos, Podemos who refused to give the only external support, Ciudadanos who rejected any offer of collaboration with a Sanchez government. Thus, in particular, Vox "despite the criminalization" has claimed trust in Piazza Abascal enjoying the repeated cry of the crowd, "Viva Espana". "We have given representation to those who felt they had no more," he repeated, with words that should now resonate with family members after the electoral revolts of the unforgotten men on this side and beyond the ocean and the English Channel.

And so while on the right the Popular Party recovers many votes after the historical collapse of April in the wake of judicial scandals: even in Spain the memory is as short as in Italy. But he sees the complicated challenge of not getting overtaken on the right by Vox. On the left, as always happens in these cases, a first showdown began. "We govern worse with 52 deputies of Vox than with our ministers – the leader of Podemos says with bitter irony Pablo Iglesias clearly addressed to the head of the government Sanchez – That of April was a historic occasion ". But now, having lost these six months for nothing, Prime Minister Sanchez resumes the speech from where he interrupted it, as if nothing had happened: "From tomorrow – he says speaking last among the party leaders – we work for this progressive government led by the PSOE ”, ie the solution identical to six months ago. The appeal of the head of government and the Socialist Party is to "the rest of the political parties to act with generosity and responsibility to unlock the political situation. The PSOE will also act with generosity and responsibility ", but" it won for the third time this year, "he said, referring to the previous political and European elections. The only ones excluded from this convocation, he specifies, are the parties that allow themselves to go to the "hate speech" and "anti-democratic" (ie Vox). An appeal so broad that its supporters in the square shout several times not only "hemos ganado, dejadnos gobernar" (we won, let us govern) and "president, president", but also and above all "with Casado no". That is a big no like the Moncloa – the government building – alla great coaliciòn, with broad agreements, with the Popular. No reference by the head of government not only to the fact that his choice to repeat the elections has not improved but greatly worsened the framework in which the government will have to be composed. But not even to the fact that his party lost 6 million effective votes within 6 months.

Now, focusing on the most likely scenario to solve the puzzle of a government's formation is like coming to the roulette table. The most probable hypothesis remains that of a Left-wing socialist-led minority government, which could start only if the Popular Party decide to refrain in Parliament: a choice to ponder well for Rajoy's heirs as the race to crown the leading party of the Spanish right from here to the next few years.

The definitive data more precisely say that the PSOE of "Pedro el guapo" loses 3 seats compared to last April: will have 120 deputies thanks to 28 percent of the votes (6 million and 600 thousand). Primacy, yes, but as useless the other time. Indeed, even more useless because Podemos of deputies loses 7 compared to six months ago, with a percentage just below 13 percent.

The real surprise is the tendential shift to the right of the Spanish electorate, probably motivated precisely by the ineffectiveness of the left parties that failed to form a government leaving the country in total stalemate for another 6 months. The popular – after the black crisis due to the corruption scandals under the guidance of the then premier Rajoy – regain oxygen with the young leader Pablo Casado and conquer 87 deputies, 21 more compared to April, when on the other hand it had reached its historic minimum.

The nationalists are the protagonists of the "fastest enterprise of the Spanish democracy", as the Abascal leader called it: they pass by the 24 congressional parliamentarians who already seemed like an exploit to the 52 elected today. To lose – drained by competitors with "more marked" identities – is the more moderate wing of the conservative camp: Ciudadanos sinks – as the Spanish newspapers headline – with a collapse in terms of votes and seats: it collects only 6 percent of the votes and 10 deputies. As emphasized by the Paìs now the problem will also be internal to the party that dreamed of eating the whole center-right: Albert Rivera, so far sold as a balance point and kingmaker of possible alliances (at the national level it never touched the ball), we find a political force with half of the leaders outside Parliament. It will not be a good environment.

The Ciudadanos, among other things, also lose the game in the match with i independence parties of the Catalonia, which will be the most difficult unsolved problem for the next government whatever it is. Rivera has always been among the most intransigent against the secessionist pressures of Barcelona. And now he finds himself overtaken by Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, the party of leftist separatists, which becomes the fifth political force inside the Congreso with 13 seats, despite being rooted – it is self-evident – only in one region. The result is made possible by the effects of the electoral law that rewards regionalist parties: 16 different symbols will enter Parliament, mostly local forces to represent the various identities of Spain, from the Galicia a Navarra, come on Basque country to the province of Teruel. It is a pure proportional system with barrage thresholds and small colleges that a few weeks ago was raised to a working model by a senior leader of the PD for the electoral reform promised by the Italian government majority. On the results of stability and simplification of the political framework with this test model, just ask the companeros of Madrid.

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