Citigroup: "It is plausible that Italy goes to the polls in the spring and Salvini returns to the government in time for the next Papeete season"

The most plausible scenario for Italy is the return to the polls next spring and a triumph of Matteo Salvini, which will then return to the government "in time for the season of Papeete". The forecast comes from the largest financial services company in the world, Citigroup, which in its last minireport on the Peninsula reserved for investors states: “In the land that gave birth to Niccolò Macchiavelli, the Devil is often in the details". And the crucial "detail" in this case is the "Fraccaro law" on cutting of parliamentarians: approved at the beginning of October, it will come into force on January 12th unless a call is issued in the meantime referendum. What is more and more likely given that in the Senate they have already been 49 signatures collected of the 64 necessary to call the consultation.

Without referendum, recalls Citigroup, in January the reform that reduces the deputies from 630 to 400 and i senators from 315 to 200 would come into force and at that point before being able to call new elections would need one new electoral law or at least a redefinition of the constituencies. And "the cross-party majority in the current Parliament could become stronger". This would amount to "postponing the elections to 2021".

But if instead we go to a referendum, it would take a few months. And "if there was a government crisis before that date, new elections should be called with the old system". That is to say that the number of parliamentarians would remain at 915 instead of falling to 600 "but, according to current voting intentions, the Alloy it would probably double its senators compared to the current 52 ″. And, thanks to "technicalities of the Rosatellum", Would have the capacity" to attract new parliamentarians, especially among those of the 5 Star Movement (107) who reluctantly agreed to change coalition allies to stay in power, or those of Forza Italia (62) ".

For this reason, according to Citigroup, the most probable picture includes the referendum, the Lega's victory in the "stronghold Pd" of Emilia Romagna – which will create "further tensions in the government majority" – followed by the elections in Campania that "could hit the M5s". At that point "the M5s members of parliament unhappy with being part of the government with the PD could leave the party and sit in the mixed group"And the President of the Republic" will probably hold elections as neither the M5s-Lega nor the M5s-Pd alliance can be replicated in the current government ". Meanwhile, "some parliamentarians who facilitate the process join the League". And here is "the games are made" and "Salvini could be back in time for the season at Papeete".

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