Why the Brexit agreement between London and Brussels may still be

The Prime Minister lost his parliamentary majority at the beginning of last September. The latter was only one vote, but the balance of power has tipped with the defection of the Conservative MP Phillip Lee, who joined the Liberal Democratic Party, Europhile, followed by twenty of them, sanctioned after that. they voted several times against the advice of their government. Currently, the Conservative Party (Tories) of Boris Johnson occupies 288 of the 650 seats in Parliament. The Tories form a coalition with the small, ultra-conservative, Eurosceptic and ultraconservative DUP, but it will not support the deal. So without a majority, and having more MPs opposed to the agreement within its majority, the task looks difficult for the former mayor of London.

Indeed, the Northern Unionist Party (Democratic Unionist Party) was the first to assert its opposition to the agreement reached. With ten MPs in the House of Commons, the DUP said it could not "support what is proposed" in particular "on customs issues". He also regretted "a lack of clarity on VAT", namely the tax scheme that will be applied in Northern Ireland, British province.

Then it was the leader of Labor Labor, the main opposition party in the United Kingdom, who expressed his reluctance. Jeremy Corbyn called on British MPs to "reject" the agreement between London and the EU. "The best way to solve the Brexit is to give the people the last word in a popular vote," said the one who hopes that the case will end with a postponement and early elections. Boris Johnson will also have to rally Labor MPs to his cause. They exist, 19 according to the count of the British press, but will they resist the pressure of their party? In the same way, the conservatives suspended by their party because of their anti-"no deal" positions will support the government under these conditions?

These different positions, to which must be added the hard-brexiters, which might not be satisfied by the agreement, make its adoption by the British Parliament very uncertain. What does it matter that Boris Johnson wants a divorce at the end of the month at any cost, and called on MPs to approve this agreement during the special session this Saturday.

Asked about the possibility of the agreement being rejected by the British, EU negotiator Michel Barnier replied: "I did my job". "It will be necessary that one day in this assembly (…) one takes its responsibilities and that which was decided by a referendum, and supported by the various governments with which we negotiated, puts in work", has he added. According to him, Boris Johnson still had "confidence in the ability to get this vote" from Parliament.

Emmanuel Macron also wants "to believe that Johnson will have a majority to support this hard-fought agreement", even if he knows "Parliaments may not be in the agreement". Jean-Claude Juncker even said that "there is no reason to postpone further" negotiations and "that there will be no extension". A question that exceeds it, since if a deadline is requested, it is up to the 27 countries of the EU to grant it.

If the agreement comes out unscathed from the British Parliament, it will also have to be ratified by the European Parliament.