Things are getting tough for Turkey in Syria

The arrival of the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his powerful Russian ally in northeastern Syria and increased international pressure greatly complicate Turkey's one-week military offensive against Kurdish forces.

Marc Thibodeau
The Press

Although the office of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan yesterday assured that the intervention would continue "with or without the support of the world," Ankara's room for maneuver appears significantly reduced.

Troops from the Syrian regime began deploying in the targeted region after reaching an agreement with the Kurdish leaders, who had been running the territory independently for several years.

They resigned themselves to asking for help from Damascus to protect themselves from the Turkish forces in response to the "betrayal" of US President Donald Trump, who precipitated the crisis by removing US troops from Ankara's targeted territory.

Moscow said yesterday that Russian units patrolling between Syrian and Turkish troops near the town of Manbij, targeted by the Turkish regime, and intended to intervene to avoid any clash between the two camps.

David Romano, a specialist in the Kurdish issue at Missouri State University, believes that the presence of Russian troops is a serious obstacle for Ankara, who will want to avoid any direct confrontation.

Francesco Cavatorta, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Laval University, notes that the arrival of Syrian forces in the region constitutes an "important political signal" that goes against the rhetoric used by Turkey to justify its intervention .

Ankara says it is carrying out an operation in a "lawless" zone against Kurdish forces that it equates with "terrorists", but the return of Syrian soldiers highlights the fact that Turkish troops are "invading" another country, "says the analyst.

Henri Barkey, Middle East expert at Lehigh University, Pennsylvania, believes that fighting between Kurdish and Turkish troops will continue in the short term, since Damascus and Moscow can not be present anywhere in the territory.

The region may be fragmented between the various factions active in the field, said the analyst, who does not expect the fighting to last several weeks.

International Critics

In addition to coping with Russian pressure, Turkey faces a barrage of international criticism, and the means of pressure against it multiply.

Several European countries have announced that they are suspending arms deliveries to the Turkish regime to prevent them from being used in Syria.

Canada followed suit by announcing that it would not issue new export permits. Global Affairs said yesterday in an email that Ankara's "unilateral" action was likely to "undermine stability in this already fragile region", exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and undermine the fight against ISIS. Detention camps involving members of the terrorist organization have been affected by the fighting.

Mr Cavatorta believes that the suspension of arms sales is unlikely to affect the Turkish regime's attitude in the short term, since it already has the arsenal to carry out its intervention.

The imposition of severe tariffs on Turkish products or exclusion from NATO would be much more damaging, but these tracks do not seem to be considered at the moment, he says.

"A pat on the fingers"

The administration of President Trump, who blows hot and cold, has imposed sanctions in recent days to some Turkish leaders, but they do not seem likely to affect the course of events, says Romano. "It's a simple tap on the fingers," he laments.

Henri Barkey believes that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had not yet taken the measure of the political backlash that may arise from his offensive in Syria.

The deterioration of relations with the United States and other traditionally allied European countries is likely to be economically felt in the longer term and eventually precipitate an internal crisis, he notes.

Francesco Cavatorta believes that the undisputed winners of the crisis are Damascus, which is gaining ground in an area long under Kurdish control, and Moscow, in the process of establishing itself as a major player in the Middle East.

They "have to laugh like crazy, thinking about the incompetence of the United States," says Romano.