"The huge weariness of British MPs on this issue could play in favor of Boris Johnson"

We started to believe it, but on Thursday, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced that they had reached an agreement to
Brexit, to avoid a "No Deal" feared by both sides. Caution, however, before celebrating the end of the decade and opening the champagne because
the case is far from settled. Especially because the hardest thing remains to be done for
Boris Johnson, with the vote to validate the agreement of the Parliament Saturday. Prime Minister to succeed where his predecessor,
Theresa May, broke her teeth.

20 minutes asked Agnes Alexandre-Collier, professor and co-author Political parties in Britain (Ed Armand Colin), how Boris Johnson plans to win the vote in Parliament, where he does not hold the majority.

The test of Parliament looks extremely complicated for Boris Johnson. What must he do to succeed?

He must expect an extremely difficult day and prepare to meet a strong adversity. It has already launched in this sense a large and very optimistic communication campaign announcing that the Parliament would be in favor of the deal and that this agreement would allow the British to "regain control". Although we must be wary of this kind of statement, he is right to play the optimists and to be publicly confident.

Somehow, his luck comes from his lack of an absolute majority, which forces him to have to recover votes in the opposing parties. We have seen how the DUP, a North-Irish party of only ten deputies, thwarted Theresa May's agreement by refusing to sign her agreement. The Prime Minister was dependent on them for the majority of the vote.

Today, the veto right that the DUP reiterates is less decisive because Boris Johnson already knew that, even with them, he would not have the majority for the vote. It must turn to the Labor Party but for this it must provide them with guarantees, including the right of employees and commercial rights once the agreement reached. It's not just an optimistic communication that will convince.

What can tip the scales for the Prime Minister?

The real difference from the failure of Theresa May is that beyond the ideologies of each other, there is enormous fatigue and fatigue on this issue. Members of Parliament are confronted every week by the anger of their constituents who are fed up with Brexit and this stagnation. Discontent is growing, and it is quite possible that MPs will be less "difficult" to convince or less reluctant to compromise by saying, "Okay, we have to go a long way and it is time to move on this file. "

Members feel that this Brexit anger is turning against Parliament, and beyond the people, parliamentarians themselves are criticizing their own institution, saying that it no longer works. Many are willing to put their personal convictions aside to move on. This is what Boris Johnson must play.

So, can Boris Johnson be optimistic for Saturday?

As we know, with Brexit, nothing is certain or predictable. It will be a fierce battle on Saturday, make no mistake. Boris Johnson has the advantage of having a better relationship with his own side than Theresa May did not. Between this and the weariness of the deputies, there would indeed be enough to hope that the voice of reason works and that an agreement is found. But we must be realistic: until now, the voice of reason has not worked much in this case …