in Nice, the outgoing mayor Christian Estrosi is the favorite of the first round according to a survey

In Nice, the outgoing LR Mayor Christian Estrosi is the favorite of the March 2020 municipal elections, according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Franceinfo, France Bleu and Nice morning published Wednesday, October 16th. At the head of the city since May 15, 2017, after having already run from 2008 to 2016, Christian Estrosi should leave the campaign against his former right hand MP LR Eric Ciotti.

If Eric Ciotti led a list supported by Republicans, the duel between the two figures of the local right would largely benefit Christian Estrosi in the first round. That there is a list backed up by The Republic On The Move or not, would not change anything. In the first round, Christian Estrosi is credited with 39% of voting intentions, in the event that LREM MP Cedric Roussel presents himself without a label. According to the survey, Eric Ciotti would get 24% of the vote.

Third on the podium, a list PS-EELV-PC-Radical Party Left (17%). The list National Rally, led by Philippe Vardon, would get 14% of the votes cast. As a comparison, Marine Le Pen won 25.3% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, and the RN list conducted by Jordan Bardella in the last European elections garnered 28.2% of the vote.

Far behind, we find France insubordinate (4%) and Cedric Roussel (2%). Voting intentions would hardly change if Cedric Roussel came up with the LREM label. Christian Estrosi would lose one point, 38%, just like the list PS-EELV-PC-Radical Party Left, at 16%. The LREM list would gain 2 points, at 4%.

The investigation has imagined a scenario where Eric Ciotti would give up. In this case, Christian Estrosi, supported by LR, would be elected in the first round with 51% of the vote, far ahead of the list RN (21%) and that of the union PS-EELV-PC-Radical party left (18 %). In the absence of Eric Ciotti, the poll notes that the 24% of votes expected to be worn on MP LR would largely refer to the outgoing mayor (12 to 13%), and 7% on the RN. The rest is spread over the other lists.

According to the survey, the electorate Eric Ciotti is not fundamentally anti-Estrosi. It is more of a rivalry between two candidates who are quicker to win the votes of the right than a vote for or against the outgoing mayor.

This survey was conducted by telephone from 10 to 14 October 2019 among a sample of 601 people registered on the electoral rolls in Nice, representative of the population of Nice aged 18 years and over.