Blog: Milan and possible post-Spal scenarios

Having reached the ninth championship eve, at least as far as the Rossoneri are concerned, maybe it's time to make some considerations. Given that the past and the present present are clear to everyone, I would like to try to focus instead on potential future future of Milan. Needless to say, given the situation, every game that comes is decisive. Not only for the technical Pioli, whose suitcases are still beautiful packaged, but for the whole society, which tomorrow will do well to arm themselves with rosaries and, in the most extreme eventuality, manuals of exorcism.
There is a demon that is haunting this Milan. An unpleasant goblin that brings with it all those bewilderments, confusions, blunders we've seen in the recent past. This demon is called fear and, it seems almost done on purpose, on Halloween night it could launch its decisive blow. Just as Pioli knew at the time of signing the contract, his first ten days on the Milan bench are and will be a veritable review of author horror. Beyond Lecce and Spal, he knew very well that he would face Rome, Lazio, Juventus and Naples right away. A horrid poker, able to make even Dario Argento crawl, given the troubled and agitated waters in which his players sailed and still sail. But now, if possible, the situation seems to have become even darker and more distressing. Just a point with Lecce, zero with Roma, in addition to having provided a performance to forget, in the Olimpico match.
Just ten points in the standings after nine days. If we did a forecasting trend for the whole season, at this speed Milan would reach about 40 points, or a hasty salvation. A result like this, from all points of view, would be unacceptable, first of all for the company already struggling with other problems, such as the decline in revenues. Revenues, already right! In fact, would it be possible to believe that, as soon as they reach salvation, they can magically go back up again? How they work revenue in the world of football, I immediately give you a sharp answer: absolutely not. Indeed, such a championship would create the exact opposite effect, since the stadium would become empty, the sponsors would flee and the broadcasts would leave the crumbs just right. Translating everything into a few, short and gloomy words, failure, the real one, would really be one step this time. Here, then, is that the match against Spal, which will lead the way to the triptych of horrors, Lazio-Juve-Napoli, assumes particular importance. With Maldini finished under Gazidis's target for his statements, Boban stopped talking in a suspicious manner and Scaroni no longer knows how to put a piece in it, the match against the Ferrarese team could say a lot about the Rossoneri's near future.
That is why and what would happen in my opinion, in case of victory or defeat.

MILAN – SPAL 1

I usually love starting from the half-empty glass, but in this case you will forgive me if I do the opposite. I do this because there is very little to say. THEIn the event of victory, Milan would draw a small sigh of relief, but nothing more. He would perhaps still have some chance of getting back into the running for the cups, the distance on the other hand says that there are only seven points between the Rossoneri and the Champions zone. Having said that, three points with a very honorable, but still unambitious, Spal could never take this Milan out of the crisis. More than anything else, it could allow Pioli to do some calculations, preparing the following three races in order to bring home at least 3 out of 9 points which, however few, are still a mirage today. Then, his bench would shake less and the boys' morale, perhaps, would be positively affected. Of course, every victory must be weighed. In fact, against Spal Pioli will have to prove that his team has some point of reference or that, at least, it is on the way to find a certain style of play. Whether it's bolt,all in the box Zeman or Tiki-Taka blaugrana, it doesn't matter.
The important thing is that an identity is being built, in some way. To be honest, unfortunately I don't have many hopes that Milan will close victoriously against Spal. And even if it were, as I have just described, it would be a Pyrrhic victory and little more. An illusory calm, before the storm of the century.

MILAN – SPAL X2

If Milan came out defeated instead, also counting the draw as a negative result, the situation that would open up would be quite different. Let's start from the fact that, ready to go, doing so iMilan could really find itself in the relegation zone. Secondly, with a Spal company, San Siro would once again become the land of conquest even for the less noble teams. In other words, Milan would find themselves caught up in a catastrophe without a quarter. THEThe morale of the players would peak and just at the moment when it would serve instead a powerful lash. On the other hand, Pioli's bench would take on the same density as the cardboard, ready to implode at any time. It could even be said that at that moment Pioli would see his already short career at Milan risk suffering a sudden braking. If in fact instead of Gazidis and Scaroni there were characters of the caliber of Zamparini, the management would not think twice about exempting the technician, although after just 3 races. However, as the situation on the upper floors is different, things could evolve in different directions. Let's see what the main ones are for me:

• • IMMEDIATE RELIEF: very low probability (1 of 5) As just argued, Gazidis and Scaroni are cold-minded people. They don't like to eat coaches, especially after having devoured one just a month ago. In fact, exemption means having a useless salary on the balance sheet. Having already that of Giampaolo still on the payroll, certainly the Rossoneri's budget would not benefit even that of Pioli, albeit small. Having said that, even if such a possibility could arise, the problem of the name of the successor would remain. This, however, we face later.
  • SPONTANEOUS RESERVATIONS OF PIOLI: low probability (2 out of 5) Pioli is a proud and calm man. He would not be new to a scenario in which he himself, despite knowing that he would have to give up his salary, could resign. The reasons why he would do it are very simple to list: poor feeling with the team; conscious impossibility of giving a shock; lack of convincing and effective tactical solutions. Should this ever happen, Milan would still have the problem of finding quickly, and on the eve of an important match like the one with Lazio, a valid successor. It must be said, however, that the budget would not be burdened by yet another useless salary.
  • EXEMANATION TO DATE FOR DESTINATION: average probability (3 out of 5) In case of defeat, the company could sanction the exoneration definitively, but postponing it either until the next national break, or directly at the end of the first round. In this way, aware that the situation could only get worse, the executives would have enough time to start negotiations with other technicians and, perhaps, to treat only a good exit with Pioli, which does not force them to keep him on the payroll until the end of season. In this sense, it is very likely that, if this possibility should arise, the exemption would arrive as soon as possible, or the next break for the national teams. Holding a Pioli already exempt in substance until December, could bring the climate inside the locker room, as well as the motivations of the players, under his heels.
  • CONTINUE WITH CLEAR GOALS: medium-high probability (4 out of 5) Finally, the company could instead agree that Pioli has been on the bench for too little time, to ask him for immediate results. Despite this, however, the ranking is clear and Milan can no longer linger. Which is why he would be asked to continue for precise, short-term goals. For example, the company could impose at least 4 points on Pioli in the triptych against Lazio, Juve and Napoli. Or, in a more extended timeline, to finish the first leg at at least 30 points. In short, clear objectives, but decidedly arduous and which, if they were not respected, would eventually lead to exemption.

To recapitulate, to see it in one way, to see it in another, Pioli's bench is already creaking, despite having been up for a very short time. Although it is not in the strings of a Milan club, a possible double exemption is not a situation to be eliminated completely. And yet, if it really entered the circle of potential choices, it would still remain a problem not just, namely the choice of the umpteenth technician to put at the head of the team. I would therefore venture to conclude this article, going to indicate 4 simple hypotheses.

1. RETURN OF GIAMPAOLO (15% probability) Where there are usually more exemptions in the season, it often happens to recall the first of the exempted ones, as this is still a payroll. So could Milan think of calling Giampaolo back? It is a possibility, but in my opinion very unlikely, given the results, the confusion and the coldness of the fans.
2. NEW ATTACKS ATTACKS (20% probability) Spalletti seemed very close, before Pioli arrived, then it seems that everything is blurred due to the good output he expected from Inter. Very high salary, known skills, overt experience. This is Spalletti, briefly. Having said that, at this point it is very difficult for the situation with Inter to be resolved, in addition to the fact that Spalletti would not venture into such a serious situation at this point in the season.
3. RECALL GATTUSO (30% probability) Where many critical fans, given the results after his goodbye, have re-evaluated it, nothing prevents the company from also rethinking to recall the coach who, at times, was about to bring Milan into the Champions League. Certainly Gattuso, the Rossoneri's heart, would accept the challenge willingly and even the engagement node would not be a problem. He trained on benches where he did not receive salary for months, like Pisa. He is a Milanese in blood and would do anything for his team. The real problem would instead be the relationship with Maldini, which would make false papers to keep old Rino off the bench. Indeed, perhaps only with the resignation of the latter, one could think of a return of Gattuso as Milan coach.
4. PROMOTION OF JOINTS (35% probability) Finally, all that remains is to evaluate Mr. Giunti's promotion from the spring. This would obviously be the last resort, but the most probable one, in particular if the Pioli exemption should arrive in a situation that is no longer recoverable. Giunti would act as a ferryman in a season of salvation, with the specific task of experimenting with new purchases, selecting upcoming market releases and, why not, experimenting with some of his acolytes grown in the nursery. All this, while the company would look for a coach with a luster, for the next season (and, in this case, Spalletti could be interesting and interesting).

Now all that remains is to wait and see. The night of witches is upon us and, perhaps, could be the darkest of Milan's recent history.